Barley Market Surge: Supply Shortages and Exporter Demand Propel Ukrainian Prices

As of February 2026, the Ukrainian barley market stands at a pivotal juncture, marked by a pronounced upward trend in prices driven primarily by acute supply shortages, persistent logistics difficulties, and robust demand from international exporters. Farmers’ notable restraint in releasing stocks is intensifying the situation, creating a tight marketplace where prices at ports are already reaching 10,800–11,000+ UAH/t (equivalent to approximately $220–222/t). These dynamics have not only fostered a sense of urgency among buyers but are also expected to maintain elevated price levels until the spring. Understanding the reverberations of these fundamental forces—entrenched local shortages, challenging transport environments, and strong exporter pull—is essential for stakeholders monitoring the grain and feed sectors in the Black Sea region.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Origin	Location	Type	Moisture	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (EUR/kg)	Last Update	Sentiment
UA	Kyiv	Feed grade	14% max	FCA	0.23	0.00	2026-02-26	Bullish
UA	Odesa	Feed grade	14% max	FCA	0.24	-0.01	2026-02-26	Bullish
UA	Odesa	Cattle feed	–	FOB	0.18	0.00	2026-02-20	Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Supply Shortages: The core market driver is the shortage of barley supplies within Ukraine. Farm-gate release is slow, with farmers holding back in anticipation of further price increases, further tightening available domestic stocks.
• Logistics Bottlenecks: Ongoing difficulties in transporting grain to key Black Sea ports continue, with infrastructural and regional risks limiting market fluidity.
• Exporter Demand: Demand from international buyers remains high, as competitive EU supplies diminish and Asian and North African importers shift attention to the Black Sea region.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Price Level: At ports, Ukrainian barley fetches between 10,800–11,000+ UAH/t ($220–222/t)—the highest seen so far in this marketing year.
• Inventory Tightness: On-farm stocks are constrained by farmers’ reluctance to sell at current levels, betting on prolonged strength through spring.
• Comparison to Local Offer Prices: FCA prices for feed barley (moisture ≤14%) are quoted at 0.23–0.24 EUR/kg in Kyiv and Odesa, corroborating the firmness of domestic pricing in global terms.

☀️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Weather conditions across the Black Sea region remain generally supportive, but any late-season frost or moisture deficits through March could further stress already strained supply chains, risking lower spring barley plantings and yields.
• Current data signals no immediate weather threat; however, ongoing logistics and geopolitical risks could quickly escalate supply strain should adverse weather develop.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• Major Exporters: Ukraine’s constrained supplies coincide with tightening stocks in key exporters like the EU and reduced Australian surpluses.
• Importers: North Africa and Asia continue to diversify sourcing; however, elevated Ukrainian prices may limit short-term affordability.
• Inventories: Global barley inventories remain low, supporting an overall bullish sentiment until the next harvest cycle.

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect sustained upward price pressure on Ukrainian barley through spring, given constrained domestic stocks and strong export pull.
• Buyers should secure volumes early, as logistics risks may sharply raise costs and expose gaps in supply.
• Sellers are incentivized to hold stocks for further price appreciation but should monitor for any shift in governmental export policy or logistics disruptions.
• Monitor international weather updates closely; any crop threat in the Black Sea or EU could accelerate upward price moves.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location/Term	Current EUR/kg	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Market Direction
Kyiv FCA	0.23	0.23–0.24	Stable to Firm
Odesa FCA	0.24	0.24–0.25	Firm
Odesa FOB	0.18	0.18–0.19	Stable

In summary: The Ukrainian barley market is dominated by local shortages and high export demand, with prices expected to remain elevated through the coming weeks. Stakeholders should remain alert to logistics, policy, and weather fluctuations, all of which could meaningfully sway market equilibrium in the short term.