The barley market is entering a crucial period, as the sowing season in Ukraine—the world’s major barley exporter—is nearly complete. According to the latest data from Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy, an impressive 748,700 hectares of barley have been sown, accounting for 96% of the planned area. This resilience comes despite logistical and broader geopolitical challenges affecting Ukrainian agriculture. Notably, the current pace of barley planting mirrors last year’s progress, signaling stable production capacity even amid ongoing uncertainties in the Black Sea region.
The importance of Ukraine’s position in the global barley market cannot be overstated, given the country supplies significant volumes to North Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Ukrainian farmers are advancing the completion of sowing for all major spring crops, so early signs point to a broadly optimistic grain production outlook—pending summer weather and further external risks.
Barley prices in Ukraine have shown notable stability over the past week, with Odesa and Kyiv reporting unchanged spot values. The outlook for both quantity and quality of the next crop appears cautiously positive, though much will depend on June-July weather and the broader macroeconomic environment. Market participants are advised to continue monitoring weather forecasts, the security situation in the Black Sea, and ongoing export logistics.
Main product offers in the market:
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Barley seeds
Cattle feed
FOB 0.21 €/kg
(from UA)
Barley seeds
feed grade, moisture: 14 % max
98%
FCA 0.23 €/kg
(from UA)
Barley seeds
feed grade, moisture: 14 % max
98%
FCA 0.24 €/kg
(from UA)
📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Exchange/Market | Product Details | Delivery | Location | Latest Price (USD/kg) | Previous Price | Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UA – Odesa (FOB) | Barley seeds (Cattle feed) | FOB | Odesa, UA | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0% | Stable |
| UA – Kyiv (FCA) | Barley seeds, feed grade, 98% purity, 14% max moisture | FCA | Kyiv, UA | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0% | Stable |
| UA – Odesa (FCA) | Barley seeds, feed grade, 98% purity, 14% max moisture | FCA | Odesa, UA | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0% | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Ukrainian Planting Progress: 748,700 ha barley planted; near full completion for season.
- Year-on-Year Comparison: Similar pace as 2024, suggesting sustained national supply.
- Stable Export Demand: Demand from North Africa, MENA, and Asian buyers expected to persist, but sensitive to shipping disruptions.
- Quality Outlook: Weather and input costs will determine final quality.
📊 Fundamentals: Production & Inventory
- Ukrainian Spring Grain Sowing: 5.583 million ha (98% of plan)—barley and corn make up the bulk.
- Oilseeds: Sunflower and soybean sowings are almost complete, supporting a generally positive row crop outlook.
- Global Comparison: Black Sea exports remain critical, but tensions continue to pressure risk premiums. EU and Australia outlooks remain stable; Morocco and Saudi Arabia are notable importers this season.
⛅ Weather Watch: Outlook & Impact
- Southern & Central Ukraine: Mild, slightly above average temperatures; periodic showers anticipated over next 10 days, which should aid crop establishment.
- Key Weather Risk: Prolonged hot, dry weather could stress crops in July, though current soil moisture levels are adequate.
- International Weather: Stable in EU and Australia, supporting expectations for normal output; North Africa remains drier than normal, feeding continued import demand.
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Monitor Black Sea security and logistics closely—any escalation may disrupt shipping and support prices.
- Cautiously optimistic production outlook: Wait for June crop tours/first harvest data before committing to large forward sales.
- Stable spot prices offer opportunities to lock in feed barley needs or sales for July–August delivery.
- Weather remains the key volatility trigger—hedge exposure if extended dry spells are forecast in key regions.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Market | Current Price (USD/kg) | Forecast Range (USD/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| UA Odesa (FOB) | 0.21 | 0.20 – 0.22 | Stable/Soft |
| UA Kyiv (FCA) | 0.23 | 0.22 – 0.24 | Stable |
| UA Odesa (FCA) | 0.24 | 0.23 – 0.25 | Stable |
Key takeaway: Ukrainian barley sowing is nearly done, ensuring strong supply potential. Prices remain steady, with weather and logistics as primary watchpoints.