Despite the decrease in the world harvest of barley, prices for it remain low due to weak demand and a record world harvest of corn and other grains, Graintrade reports.
According to the IGC, in 2023/24 the global grain harvest will reach a record 2.3 billion tons, which will exceed the previous season by 2%, primarily due to the recovery of corn production.
In the January report, USDA experts reduced the forecast of world barley production in 2023/24 MY by 0.7 million tons to almost the lowest figure in 10 years of 142.9 million tons (151.6 million tons in 2022/23 MY), in particular for the EU – by 1 to 47.5 million tons. Ending stocks are expected to decrease compared to the previous season by 9.6% to a 10-year low of 18.4 million tons.
Unfavorable weather in Northern Europe and Eastern Australia led to a deterioration in the quality of malting barley and a decrease in its volume. This year in the EU, prices for brewing barley with delivery to the factory reached 240-260 €/t, and by 50-60 €/t exceeded the prices for fodder barley. However, the trend of recent years to reduce beer consumption has reduced the demand for malting barley, so it is not worth expecting an increase in prices for it at the end of the season.
Winter barley crops in Europe are in good condition, so forecasts of barley production in the next season have been increased to 54.5 million tons. But the final figure will depend on the area sown with spring barley and the condition of the crops during the season.