Bean Market Dynamics: Oversupply Dampens Prices Amid Lukewarm Demand

The global beans market is currently navigating a phase of oversupply, with sluggish demand weighing on prices across major production and consumption hubs. In the UK and China, red kidney bean stock levels remain high, but many farmers are reluctant to sell at present pricing, holding out for stronger demand or more favorable market conditions. Trends from the Hebei region show quicker farm sales—however, plentiful supplies in Shanxi and the cautious approach to procurement by traders, who are buying just enough to meet immediate needs, have limited any potential bullish momentum. Downstream distributors in the UK are mostly clearing existing inventories, further limiting fresh procurement and contributing to tepid market activity. The export sector is equally subdued, with price competitiveness from imported beans challenging domestic supply advantages. As a result, bean prices are largely range-bound, lacking near-term catalysts for a notable recovery. China’s robust production keeps supply concerns at bay for the moment, even as cost support from farmgate prices provides a soft price floor. Looking ahead, the market will closely watch consumption trends, export demand, and new-crop developments for any signs of a turnaround.

📈 Prices at a Glance

Name	Type	Origin	Location	Latest Price (EUR/t, FOB)	Weekly Change (%)	Market Sentiment
Mung beans	Organic, 99.5%	CN	Beijing	1.65	+0.6%	Steady/Firm
Mung beans	3.8 mm up, 99.5%	CN	Beijing	1.46	+0.7%	Steady/Firm
Kidney beans	Small, black, organic	CN	Beijing	1.13	-2.6%	Weakening
Kidney beans	Large, white, organic	CN	Beijing	2.72	-2.2%	Weakening
Kidney beans	Dark red, organic	CN	Beijing	1.37	-1.4%	Weakening
Kidney beans	Dark red	BR	Brasília	1.39	+1.5%	Steady
Kidney beans	White	GB	London	1.32	+1.5%	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• Supply: China and UK report adequate to surplus bean inventories. Farmers in Hebei are selling at a faster pace, while those in Shanxi have significant unsold stock. Import competition keeps a lid on local pricing power.
• Demand: Most UK downstream buyers are still working through existing inventories, which reduces near-term procurement. Export demand is slow, stressing the market’s need to absorb current supplies before a price recovery.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Cost Support: Although some price weakness is noted, farmgate cost support has so far prevented sharp declines.
• Speculative Activity: Trade remains largely on a just-in-time, as-needed basis, suggesting minimal speculative positioning.
• Recent Trends: The most recent data continues the pattern observed in the last official report, with little directional change but increasing concerns about demand slackness.

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

• Hebei and Shanxi (China): Current weather favors harvesting and storage, sustaining adequate supply levels. Short-term weather forecasts show generally dry, mild conditions, reducing the risk of weather-induced supply disruptions.
• UK: Stable, cool conditions in major UK bean-growing regions should help maintain crop quality, with no significant weather-related threats on the horizon.

🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024 Prod. (est. Kt)	2024 Stock (est. Kt)	Comment
China	2,000	700	Strong production, large inventory
Brazil	1,100	255	Exports supported by lower real
UK	650	200	High carryover stock, slow demand
India	950	180	Stable, price-sensitive market

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• China (Beijing FOB): Slight downward pressure expected (-0.5% to -1%), especially for red kidney beans, barring surprise demand or weather events.
• UK (London FOB): Prices anticipated to remain flat to slightly soft as slow buying persists and import competition continues.
• Brazil (Brasília FOB): Stable, potential minor gains if export activity picks up.

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers should continue to adopt a just-in-time approach, capitalizing on ample supplies and mild downward price bias.
• Sellers in China and the UK may need to price competitively to move inventory, especially in light of stagnant export demand.
• Importers should monitor currency moves in Brazil and China, as further devaluation could enhance price competitiveness.
• Watch for any sudden uptick in export orders or downstream demand, which could offer short-term trading opportunities.