Bean Prices Hold Steady Amid Balanced Supply, with Modest Winter Demand Expected

China’s bean market, especially the Adzuki (red) beans, continues to exhibit remarkable price stability as 2025 draws to a close. Market participants report a steady supply-demand landscape, with regional traders in producing areas maintaining stable quotes amidst persistent reluctance from farmers to sell at lower prices. Despite a slight uptick in downstream procurement and winter restocking on the horizon, both supply and cost constraints have kept national prices flat this week. However, anticipation is mounting that downstream demand and gradual restocking from late December to early January will provide moderate bullish support, potentially nudging prices up in specific locales, albeit most regions are expected to remain stable in the near term. This scenario is reflected not only in China’s key product prices but also in global bean markets, where small fluctuations point to a market finding its balance after previous volatility. Ongoing monitoring of weather developments and trading activity will be crucial for stakeholders as winter approaches.

📈 Prices

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Price (EUR)	Previous (EUR)	WoW Change	Sentiment
Mung beans	organic	CN	Beijing	1.65	1.64	+0.6%	Stable/Bullish
Mung beans	3.8 mm up	CN	Beijing	1.46	1.45	+0.7%	Stable
Kidney beans	organic, small black	CN	Beijing	1.13	1.16	-2.6%	Neutral/Lower
Kidney beans	large white	CN	Beijing	2.66	2.73	-2.6%	Weak
Kidney beans	dark red	CN	Beijing	1.23	1.28	-3.9%	Weak
Adzuki beans	organic, red 5.0mm up	CN	Beijing	1.28	1.30	-1.5%	Stable/Neutral
Adzuki beans	red 5.0mm up	CN	Beijing	1.20	1.22	-1.6%	Stable
Kidney beans	dark red	BR	Brasília	1.39	1.37	+1.5%	Firm
Kidney beans	white	GB	London	1.32	1.30	+1.5%	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Producer reluctance to sell at low prices keeps Chinese Adzuki and Mung bean supplies tight.
• Trade cost remains elevated, traders maintain supply chiefly for existing clients.
• Recent, slight rise in downstream demand (especially in distribution regions), but not enough to trigger price increases yet.
• Expectation of progressive, mild winter restocking between late December and January, which should lend support to prices.
• Internationally, Brazil’s bean prices showed modest gains, while UK-origin beans firmed up modestly week-over-week.

📊 Market Fundamentals & Drivers

• Cost-supply impasse remains: neither supply surplus nor major demand spike, leading to overall price stability.
• USDA and Chinese provincial data suggest stable sown area and output; inventories remain balanced.
• Speculative participation low; market mainly driven by physical trades for scheduled deliveries and contracts.
• Global shipping and logistics remain stable; no major disruptions reported.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• North China: Cold, dry winter conditions expected to persist, supporting grain preservation but slowing farm sales.
• Brazil: Normal to above-normal rainfall projected, positive for 2026 production and replenishment of stocks.
• UK/Europe: Mild winter so far, with no weather-related logistical bottlenecks reported for bean exports.

Potential Effects: Weather stability in major zones supports consistent supply; farm-level reluctance and good storability of beans likely to limit market pressure.

🌐 Global Market Comparison

Country	Main Bean Type	2025 Production (est. million tonnes)	Ending Stocks (million t)	Sentiment
China	Adzuki, Mung, Kidney	~5.0	1.2	Stable/Bias Firm
Brazil	Kidney, Black, Pinto	3.3	0.7	Firm
UK	Broad, Fava	0.32	0.08	Neutral

📝 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term: Expect mostly flat prices, with pockets of firmness where restocking emerges in late Dec/early Jan.
• Producers: Hold if possible, as moderate bullish momentum is likely during winter restocking.
• Buyers: Consider building/refreshing inventory before anticipated small price uptick in early 2026.
• Exporters: Stable logistics and pricing support active contracting with international partners.
• Risk: Downside limited by producer reluctance and robust local demand; upside capped absent weather or logistics shock.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Region	Product	Current Price (EUR)	3-Day Forecast
Beijing (FOB)	Adzuki beans (organic)	1.28	1.28–1.30 (Stable/firm)
Beijing (FOB)	Mung beans (organic)	1.65	1.65–1.68 (Stable/firm)
Brasília (FOB)	Kidney beans (dark red)	1.39	1.38–1.42 (Stable)
London (FOB)	Kidney beans (white)	1.32	1.32–1.33 (Stable)