Beans Market Analysis: China’s Imports Surge, Inventories Rise, and Global Prices Shift

Since May, the global beans market has experienced notable shifts, especially driven by China’s increased imports of Brazilian soybeans and rising inventories at major oil mills. This influx has not only stabilized but also elevated bean stocks, reversing previous downward trends. As of May 16, the soybean inventory at China’s major oil mills reached 6.46 million tons, a weekly increase of 570,000 tons and a monthly rise of 1.77 million tons. Compared to last year, inventories are up 1.51 million tons, and they stand 1.71 million tons above the three-year average. Meanwhile, soybean meal inventories have also seen a third consecutive week of increase, though they remain lower than a year ago. These dynamics are reshaping China’s domestic supply landscape, dampening upward price pressure and impacting the broader Asia-Pacific region.

On the global front, beans prices are showing mixed trends. Chinese-origin organic mung beans and kidney beans are holding firm, while some conventional varieties are softening slightly. Internationally, Brazilian and UK-origin beans are posting modest gains, reflecting robust demand from Europe and the Americas. Weather remains a key variable: favorable rainfall in Brazil and steady conditions in China are supporting yield prospects, while pockets of dryness in North America and Europe could introduce volatility in the coming weeks. With Chinese inventories on the rise and global production stable, market participants should closely monitor weather developments and trade flows for strategic positioning in the months ahead.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Type	Purity	Organic	Location	FOB Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change	Update Date	Sentiment
Mung beans	CN	organic	99.5%	Yes	Beijing	1.47	+0.02	2025-05-21	Firm
Mung beans	CN	3.8 mm up	99.5%	No	Beijing	1.38	+0.02	2025-05-21	Firm
Kidney beans	CN	small, black, organic	99.5%	Yes	Beijing	1.50	-0.03	2025-05-21	Soft
Kidney beans	CN	Large, white, organic	99.5%	Yes	Beijing	3.39	-0.03	2025-05-21	Soft
Kidney beans	CN	large white	99.5%	No	Beijing	3.30	-0.04	2025-05-21	Soft
Kidney beans	CN	dark red, organic	99.5%	Yes	Beijing	2.45	0.00	2025-05-21	Stable
Kidney beans	CN	dark red	99.5%	No	Beijing	2.32	+0.02	2025-05-21	Firm
Kidney beans	CN	black	99.5%	No	Beijing	1.45	-0.02	2025-05-21	Soft
Adzuki beans	CN	red, organic, 5.0 mm up	99.5%	Yes	Beijing	1.53	-0.02	2025-05-21	Soft
Adzuki beans	CN	red, 5.0 mm up	99.95%	No	Beijing	1.46	-0.02	2025-05-21	Soft
Kidney beans	BR	dark red		No	Brasília	1.47	+0.01	2025-05-16	Firm
Kidney beans	BR	brown eye		No	Brasília	1.41	+0.01	2025-05-16	Firm
Kidney beans	GB	white	99%	No	London	1.40	+0.01	2025-05-16	Firm
German beans	GB	split		No	London	1.00	+0.01	2025-05-16	Stable
Fava Beans	GB	sortex, small		No	London	1.21	+0.01	2025-05-16	Firm
Beans dried	GB	split, 12 mm	98%	No	London	1.65	+0.01	2025-05-16	Firm
Beans broad	GB	whole 12 mm	99.5%	No	London	1.35	+0.01	2025-05-16	Firm
Alubia beans	BR	white		No	Brasília	1.41	+0.01	2025-05-16	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand

• China’s Imports: Concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans have significantly increased China’s bean inventories since May.
• Inventories: Major Chinese oil mills now hold 6.46 million tons of imported soybeans, up both week-on-week and year-on-year. Soybean meal stocks have also risen for three consecutive weeks.
• Global Demand: European and North American demand remains steady, with moderate price increases for UK and Brazilian beans reflecting ongoing consumption in food and feed sectors.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money positions in global pulses remain net long, but with reduced exposure due to increased Chinese supply and stable global production.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Global bean production is forecast to remain stable, with slight increases in South American output offsetting minor declines in North America.
• Chinese Stocks: Inventories are at a three-year high, easing domestic supply concerns and limiting upward price pressure.
• International Trade: Trade flows are robust, especially from Brazil to China and from UK to continental Europe.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• China: Recent rains in key growing regions have supported planting and early crop development. No major weather threats forecast for the next week.
• Brazil: Ample rainfall has improved soil moisture, supporting late harvests and new plantings.
• Europe: Some dryness in southern and eastern regions could limit yield potential if it persists, but current conditions are not critical.
• North America: Localized dryness in the Midwest could impact yields if prolonged, but overall prospects remain neutral.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Production (est.)	2024/25 Stocks (est.)	Change vs. Last Year
China	19.2 Mt	6.5 Mt	Stocks +1.5 Mt
Brazil	3.1 Mt	0.8 Mt	Stable
UK	0.6 Mt	0.1 Mt	Stable
EU (total)	1.9 Mt	0.3 Mt	Slightly lower
USA	1.8 Mt	0.4 Mt	Slightly lower

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor Chinese inventory trends for early signals of market direction.
• Expect stable to slightly softer prices in China due to high stocks, but potential for firming in Europe if dryness persists.
• Consider forward contracts for Brazilian and UK-origin beans given steady demand and resilient prices.
• Stay alert to weather developments in North America and Europe—any escalation of dryness could trigger price rallies.
• Speculators: Reduce long exposure in China, maintain moderate positions in Europe and Brazil.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region	Product	Current Price (USD/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Trend
China (Beijing)	Mung beans (organic)	1.47	1.46 – 1.48	Stable
China (Beijing)	Kidney beans (small, black, organic)	1.50	1.49 – 1.51	Stable
Brazil (Brasília)	Kidney beans (dark red)	1.47	1.47 – 1.48	Firm
UK (London)	Kidney beans (white)	1.40	1.40 – 1.41	Firm