Beans Market Analysis: Mixed Signals as U.S. Exports Slow and Prices Adjust

The global beans market is experiencing a period of transition as we approach mid-2025. Recent data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture highlights a 9% increase in net sales of U.S. soybeans for the 2024/25 marketing year, totalling 307,900 tons. Key buyers include Mexico, Taiwan, Indonesia, and Malaysia, while the 2025/26 forward sales are modest at 15,000 tons, mainly to Costa Rica. However, weekly U.S. export volumes have slumped to the lowest point this year, down 42% from the previous week and 43% below the four-week average. This suggests that while demand remains robust in some regions, logistical or seasonal factors are slowing actual shipments.

Meanwhile, price movements for a variety of beans—mung, kidney, adzuki, and fava—across major origins such as China, Brazil, and the UK reveal a market in flux, with some varieties seeing minor upticks and others slight declines. Weather conditions in key growing regions, especially the U.S. Midwest and China, are poised to play a decisive role in the weeks ahead, potentially impacting yields and further influencing market sentiment. As traders navigate these cross-currents, the outlook remains cautious yet opportunistic for those attuned to shifting supply and demand fundamentals.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Type	Purity	Organic	Location	FOB Price (USD/kg)	Prev. Price	Weekly Change	Update Date
Mung beans	CN	organic	99.5%	Yes	Beijing	1.45	1.47	-0.02	2025-05-27
Mung beans	CN	3.8 mm up	99.5%	No	Beijing	1.37	1.38	-0.01	2025-05-27
Kidney beans	CN	small, black, organic	99.5%	Yes	Beijing	1.52	1.50	+0.02	2025-05-27
Kidney beans	CN	Large, white, organic	99.5%	Yes	Beijing	3.41	3.39	+0.02	2025-05-27
Kidney beans	BR	dark red		No	Brasília	1.45	1.47	-0.02	2025-05-23
Fava Beans	GB	sortex, small		No	London	1.19	1.21	-0.02	2025-05-23

Market sentiment: Mixed, with slight downward pressure on some varieties and marginal gains in others. Export slowdowns are weighing on prices, but certain organic and speciality beans are holding firm or rising.

🌍 Supply & Demand

• U.S. Soybean Net Sales (2024/25): 307,900 tons, up 9% week-on-week. Major buyers: Mexico (134,100t), Taiwan (26,700t), Indonesia (24,200t), Malaysia (20,300t).
• U.S. Soybean Net Sales (2025/26): 15,000 tons, mainly to Costa Rica.
• Weekly U.S. Exports: 250,800 tons (lowest this year), down 42% from last week and 43% below the 4-week average. Key destinations: Mexico, Egypt, Indonesia, Taiwan, Colombia.
• China: Remains a dominant importer but has not featured prominently in the latest U.S. sales data, possibly due to ample domestic stocks or alternative sourcing.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money remains cautious amid export slowdowns and weather uncertainty.

📊 Fundamentals

• Global Production: The U.S. and Brazil remain top producers. Brazil’s 2024/25 crop is expected to be robust, but logistical bottlenecks persist.
• Stocks: U.S. ending stocks are forecast to remain comfortable but could tighten if export pace recovers. Chinese reserves are stable but are being monitored closely.
• Comparative Data: The last report indicated stronger export momentum and slightly higher prices for both mung and kidney beans. The current slowdown marks a notable shift.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• U.S. Midwest: Recent reports indicate above-average rainfall and moderate temperatures, supporting crop development but raising concerns about excessive soil moisture in some areas.
• China (Northeast): Weather has been generally favourable, but localised dry spells could impact yield potential if they persist into June.
• Brazil: Harvest is wrapping up under mostly dry conditions, aiding logistics but potentially stressing late-planted beans.

Weather impact: Overall supportive for crop yields, but continued monitoring is advised as regional variability could influence final output.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Production (est. mln tons)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (mln tons)	Role
U.S.	~112	~10	Top exporter
Brazil	~155	~34	Top producer/exporter
China	~20	~30	Top importer/reserves
Argentina	~50	~6	Exporter

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor U.S. export pace closely; a sustained slowdown could pressure prices further.
• Watch for weather developments in the U.S. Midwest and China—any shift could quickly alter yield projections and price direction.
• Organic and speciality beans (e.g., large white kidney, organic mung) are showing relative price strength; consider these for premium market opportunities.
• Importers may find short-term buying opportunities as prices soften on weaker exports, but should hedge against potential weather-driven volatility.
• Producers should remain alert to currency fluctuations and logistical updates, especially in Brazil and China.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Product	Origin	Current Price (USD/kg)	3-Day Forecast
Mung beans (organic)	CN	1.45	1.43 – 1.46
Mung beans (3.8mm up)	CN	1.37	1.36 – 1.39
Kidney beans (small, black, organic)	CN	1.52	1.51 – 1.54
Kidney beans (dark red)	BR	1.45	1.44 – 1.47
Fava Beans	GB	1.19	1.18 – 1.21