Beans Market Analysis: Navigating Post-Holiday Demand and Tight Inventories

The bean market, particularly in China, enters a new phase after the Dragon Boat Festival. Downstream demand for Adzuki and Mung beans has seen a notable dip, prompting some traders to slightly lower their prices to stimulate movement, though others have opted to keep prices steady. Inventory among merchants typically ranges between 200 and 500 tons, with only a handful exceeding 500 tons, levels that remain below the average for this time of year. Most market participants are prioritising depleting their stocks to fulfil longstanding client contracts, limiting aggressive new sales.

Despite weaker demand in the short term, strong raw material costs continue to put an effective floor under prices, restricting significant downward swings. The current environment is thus characterised by limited volatility with a slight bearish undertone, especially in localised segments. However, given the low inventory and stable cost support, any major price corrections appear unlikely for now. Meanwhile, international markets show varied trends: Chinese organic kidney and mung beans see small gains, while beans from Brazil and the UK generally trend lower. Weather patterns in key growing regions will become increasingly influential as planting and early growth stages progress.

📈 Latest Beans Market Prices

Name	Type	Origin	Location	Price (USD/kg, FOB)	Prev. Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Mung beans	Organic, 99.5%	CN	Beijing	1.47	1.45	+0.02	Firm to slightly bullish
Mung beans	3.8 mm up	CN	Beijing	1.39	1.37	+0.02	Steady
Kidney beans	Small, black, organic	CN	Beijing	1.53	1.52	+0.01	Stable
Kidney beans	Large, white, organic	CN	Beijing	3.39	3.41	-0.02	Soft
Adzuki beans	Red, organic, 5.0 mm up	CN	Beijing	1.57	1.50	+0.07	Bullish
Kidney beans	Dark red	BR	Brasília	1.44	1.45	-0.01	Mildly weak
Kidney beans	White	GB	London	1.37	1.38	-0.01	Soft

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• Post-festival demand in China is subdued, with buyers reluctant and focused on consuming existing stocks.
• Most suppliers are fulfilling standing orders for old clients and are hesitant to expand into new sales.
• Inventories in China are seasonally low, generally 200–500t, which is under the historical norm.
• Brazil and UK bean offers are weaker, reflecting ample supply and subdued demand in destination markets.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Raw material costs continue to bolster domestic prices in China, cushioning markets from sharper declines.
• Speculative interest is muted, with macro investors largely on the sidelines during this phase.
• USDA and regional government crop area projections are unchanged; no significant shocks are expected in the upcoming season.
• China’s sustained lower inventories set the stage for potential supply squeezes if demand rebounds unexpectedly.

⛅ Weather & Regional Outlook

• China North/Northeast: Weather is currently favourable for early crop development, supporting near-term yield prospects.
• Brazil: Transitioning to dry season—any surprise dryness could impact yield expectations, but no concerns yet reported.
• Europe (UK): Mild, wet weather; beneficial for fava and alubia bean crop progress, maintaining supply optimism.

🌏 Global Supply, Production, and Stock Comparison

Country	Main Varieties	Stock Position (Seasonal)	Production Trend (YoY)	Export Momentum
China	Mung, Adzuki, Red, Kidney	Low (-10% YoY)	Stable	Robust
Brazil	Kidney, Alubia	Adequate	Up +5%	Stable
UK/Europe	Fava, broad, alubia	Normal	Steady	Soft

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers: Wait for clearer post-holiday demand signals before making significant forward bookings.
• Merchants: Continue to clear inventory, but avoid aggressive discounting. Monitor for unexpected uptick in downstream purchasing.
• Exporters: Leverage low inventories and firm cost structure to maintain offering prices in China.
• Watch for weather developments in key production areas, especially China and Brazil.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location	Variety	Current Price (USD/kg, FOB)	3-Day Forecast	Comment
Beijing, CN	Mung beans (organic)	1.47	1.46–1.48	Range-bound; support from tight stocks
Beijing, CN	Adzuki beans (red, organic)	1.57	1.56–1.59	Possible mild strength if fresh demand emerges
Beijing, CN	Kidney beans (dark red)	2.38	2.38–2.41	Stable, with upside if inventory drops further
London, GB	Beans broad (whole 12mm)	1.32	1.31–1.33	Mildly weak but steady amid good crop prospects
Brasília, BR	Kidney beans (dark red)	1.44	1.43–1.45	Weakness persists as exports step up