Beans Market Under Pressure: Ample Supply Meets Tepid Demand—What’s Next?

Bean markets are facing a tense equilibrium as robust supplies from leading producers, notably China and the UK, meet subdued downstream and export demand. Current trade sentiment is shaped by cautious grower selling: while UK red kidney bean markets are well-supplied, farmers remain reticent to sell at low prices, hoping for a rebound. This is especially noticeable in Hebei, China, where grain sales are progressing briskly, but neighboring regions like Shanxi Xuanzhou lag due to low price resistance. Meanwhile, demand across the board has softened, with much of the market content to draw down existing inventories and only selectively procure at bargain levels. Export interest has waned, pressuring prices downwards, even as processors and exporters keep their inventories lean. Market participants are now closely watching weather influences in key growing regions, as well as evolving global trade flows, to gauge what direction prices might take in the short term. If fundamentals remain unchanged—ample stock, cautious sellers, and weak buying interest—beans may see further minor downward correction. However, weather surprises or a demand surge could shift this finely poised balance.

📈 Prices

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Purity	Organic	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/t)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Mung beans	Organic	CN	Beijing	99.5%	Yes	FOB	1.64	+0.04	Bullish
Mung beans	3.8 mm up	CN	Beijing	99.5%	No	FOB	1.45	+0.01	Neutral
Kidney beans	Small, black, organic	CN	Beijing	99.5%	Yes	FOB	1.16	-0.06	Bearish
Kidney beans	Large, white, organic	CN	Beijing	99.5%	Yes	FOB	2.78	-0.22	Bearish
Kidney beans	Large white	CN	Beijing	99.5%	No	FOB	2.73	-0.14	Bearish
Kidney beans	Dark red, organic	CN	Beijing	99.5%	Yes	FOB	1.39	-0.05	Bearish
Adzuki beans	Red, organic, 5.0 mm up	CN	Beijing	99.5%	Yes	FOB	1.3	-0.03	Bearish
Kidney beans	Dark red	BR	Brasília	–	No	FOB	1.37	-0.02	Bearish
Kidney beans	White	GB	London	99%	No	FOB	1.3	-0.02	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Supply: UK red kidney bean availability is ample. In China, Hebei’s sales are buoyant while Shanxi farmers prefer to hold stocks at current low price levels. Most traders buy only what is needed, and total inventory levels are not excessive.
• Demand: Downstream users, both domestic and export-oriented, are drawing on inventories with limited new buying. Procurement remains tepid with only essential orders placed. Export interest has further cooled.
• Stock: Factories and exporters continue to run down inventories. Overall stockholding in producing areas is moderate-to-low as active buying is avoided.

📊 Fundamentals & External Influences

• Recent USDA estimates point to solid global harvests, with China and UK maintaining high output and normal carryover.
• No significant government policy interventions reported in major producing/exporting countries.
• Freight costs remain stable, but soft demand limits any price upside.
• Speculative activity is subdued in the current market phase as spot/futures spreads are narrowing.
• Last report comparison: Markets continue to soften, echoing the prior period’s assessment of persistent supply overhang and buyer caution, but price corrections have accelerated for some varieties (notably large and organic beans from China).

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Regional Impact

• China’s top bean production belts, including Hebei and Shanxi, are expected to see mild, mostly dry conditions in the next three days. This should aid late-harvest logistics but not materially alter yield prospects, which are already locked in post-harvest.
• No severe weather events forecast for major exporting origins (e.g., Brazil, UK). UK growing areas are normal for the season, with no disruptive frosts or rains expected in the near term.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Snapshot

• China: Remains top global supplier; stocks held lower than average but enough to meet tepid global demand at current pace.
• UK: Sufficient stock for domestic and export needs, but with little bullish demand-side support.
• Brazil: Harvest progressing as normal; bean exports are steady but not expanding.
• EU/Other Importers: Mainly clearing on-hand stocks; imports ongoing but at slowed pace and lower price points.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🛑 Sellers: Consider staggered sales to avoid price pressure, but beware further downside if inventories remain heavy and demand weak.
• 📉 Buyers: Continue spot procurement; positions can be delayed, as no major upside risk apparent in the short term.
• 📊 Traders: Watch closely for any shift in weather or export demand which could trigger quick price rebounds, especially in organic varieties.
• ⚠️ Risk: Unlikely to see significant near-term rally barring weather shock or policy change; market is comfortable with supply.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Product/Location	Current Price (EUR/t)	3-Day Forecast
Mung beans (Beijing, CN)	1.64	1.62 – 1.65
Kidney beans, organic (Beijing, CN)	1.16	1.14 – 1.18
Kidney beans, white (London, GB)	1.3	1.28 – 1.31
Beans broad (London, GB)	1.25	1.24 – 1.26