Beans Market Update: Price Rises Slow as Supply Tightens, Outlook Stable

The global beans market is navigating a complex environment, marked by low farmer selling interest, constrained supply, and a notable divergence in price behavior between organic and conventional beans. In China, the mood among farmers remains cautious, with reluctance to sell, driving up local procurement costs. Downstream buyers are meeting their needs from existing inventory and are hesitant to buy more at current price levels, resulting in subdued trading activity and slower procurement rates. Meanwhile, only a handful of exporters are selectively replenishing their stocks, keeping overall buying volumes modest. Notably, organic mung beans are becoming increasingly scarce, pushing prices upward and limiting opportunities for downside. The stability in conventional bean prices reflects a market still digesting recent supply arrivals and managing inventory rather than immediate upward pressure.

Turning to international influences, Uzbekistan’s influx of new mung bean arrivals is expanding available supply, though prior high procurement prices continue to buttress sprouting bean values. However, demand for sprouting beans in China has yet to enter its seasonal peak, with downstream players largely sticking to as-needed buying. Weather is coming into sharper focus, as key growing regions monitor rainfall and temperature swings that could impact late-season yield and quality. Heading into the next week, most forecasts from analysts, including Zhuochuang, suggest that price stability will be the dominant feature for both Chinese and Uzbek beans, except for premium organic types.

For those looking to capitalize or hedge, the market signals a period of low volatility but potential upside in select segments, especially if supply tightens further or demand recovers faster.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Type	Purity	Organic	Location	Closing Price (EUR/mt)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Mung beans	CN	Organic	99.5%	Yes	Beijing	1.64	+0.04	Strong uptrend (tight supply)
Mung beans	CN	3.8 mm up	99.5%	No	Beijing	1.45	+0.01	Stable
Kidney beans	CN	Small, black	99.5%	Yes	Beijing	1.16	-0.06	Soft (weak overseas demand)
Kidney beans	CN	Large, white	99.5%	Yes	Beijing	2.78	-0.22	Corrective
Kidney beans	CN	Dark red	99.5%	Yes	Beijing	1.39	-0.05	Weak
Kidney beans	BR	Dark red	–	No	Brasília	1.37	-0.02	Weak
Beans broad	GB	Whole 12 mm	99.5%	No	London	1.25	-0.02	Soft

🌍 Supply & Demand

• China: Farmers remain hesitant to sell, so marketable inventories are tight. High acquisition costs are keeping many smaller traders on the sidelines. Downstream buyers’ ample stocks reduce spot demand but a lack of slackness in the market keeps prices supported, especially for organics. Exporters are cherry-picking smaller volumes at premium prices.
• Uzbekistan: Fresh new-crop mung beans have increased supply, but high historical procurement costs help put a floor under prices. Domestic demand in China for sprouting beans is tepid; peak buying season hasn’t yet arrived.
• Global: Brazil, the UK, and other exporters show stable to slightly softer price trends, buoyed by steady but not spectacular demand.
• Stock & Production Trends: Organic premium persists, and any further tightening in supply (from farmer-held stocks, poor weather, or stronger export orders) could rapidly move prices. On the other hand, undeterred downstream buying is unlikely barring a pullback in prices or a weather-driven supply shock.

📊 Fundamentals

• Export competition: Uzbek and Brazilian origin beans are offering alternatives to Chinese supply, but with varying grades and specifications.
• Acreage & Yield: No major expansion reported for the current crop cycle; most planted area was already locked in earlier in the season.
• Stocks: Chinese buyers are running down old stocks, buying only as needed.
• Speculative Positioning: Larger traders are mostly neutral, awaiting more conclusive demand signals and better price clarity.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• China – NE & North Central: Cool, mostly dry this week, but some showers are forecast for later next week. Some regions show moderate soil moisture, which should be enough for normal crop development, but prolonged dryness remains a risk if rain misses the main belt.
• Uzbekistan: Stable growing weather, but the risk of late-season dryness could impact recently supplied beans if temperatures spike again.
• Brazil/UK: Normal conditions with no major weather disruptions expected near-term.

Impact: Weather remains a moderate bullish factor; watch for any outlook changes as late-season development will be critical, particularly for premium bean grades.

🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	Main Varieties	2024/25 Production Estimate (k mt)	Ending Stocks
China	Mung, Kidney, Adzuki	~1,900	Low–Moderate (drawdown in progress)
Uzbekistan	Mung	~400	Building
Brazil	Kidney, Pinto	~630	Stable
UK	Fava, Broad	~220	Ample

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term, expect price stability for most conventional beans; monitor for weather or farmer sales changes.
• Organic mung beans: Stay alert—premium remains firm, further upside risk if supply tightens further.
• Non-organic kidney beans: Prices drift slightly lower on lackluster export demand; downside may be limited as supply is already well priced.
• For importers: Lock in large or organic volumes now to hedge against further tightening; small volume buyers may stay flexible as conventional bean supply is fairly stable.
• Exporters/Producers: Consider incremental sales for organics if you hold stocks, especially as the peak procurement window approaches.
• Monitor: Farmer marketing trends, weather developments, and global exchange rates for further market direction cues.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Product	Current Price (EUR/mt)	3-Day Forecast	Sentiment
China (Beijing)	Mung beans (organic)	1.64	1.65 – 1.68	Stable/Upward
China (Beijing)	Mung beans (conv.)	1.45	1.44 – 1.46	Stable
China (Beijing)	Kidney beans (small, black, org)	1.16	1.15 – 1.18	Stable
Brazil (Brasília)	Kidney beans (dark red)	1.37	1.36 – 1.38	Stable
UK (London)	Beans broad (whole 12mm)	1.25	1.24 – 1.26	Stable