California Almond Exports Surge – India Sets April Record
📍 Total almond shipments in April match last year – Export markets outperform while domestic sales slow, and prices remain firm
California almond shipments in April 2025 totalled 241 million pounds, matching exactly the volume of April 2024. A +6.3% increase in exports offset a -17.8% drop in domestic shipments. India was the top buyer with a record 1,447 containers shipped in April.
📊 1. Market Overview: Shipment Volumes & Prices
April Shipments (2025 vs. 2024)
| Category | 2025 (M lbs) | 2024 (M lbs) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic | 53.90 | 65.60* | -17.8% |
| Export | 187.81 | 176.40* | +6.3% |
| Total | 241.00 | 241.00 | 0.0% |
*Estimates for comparative purposes
Top 5 Export Destinations – April
| Country | 2025 (M lbs) | 2024 (M lbs) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇮🇳 India | 45.9 | 32.9 | +39.5% |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 19.0 | 15.9 | +19.5% |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 11.2 | 9.7 | +15.5% |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 13.1 | 7.9 | +65.8% |
| 🇦🇪 UAE | 14.8 | 8.6 | +72.1% |
🌰 2. Crop & Estimates
- 📦 2024/25 Crop Receipts: 2.708 billion lbs (+11.0% YoY)
- 📊 2025 Subjective Crop Estimate: 2.8 billion lbs
- +3% vs. 2024 crop
- Bearing acres: +10,000
- Yield per acre: 2,010 lbs
📈 3. Market Trends & Pricing
- 🧾 April New Sales: 192 million lbs (↓ from 218M last year, -11.9%)
- ✅ Sold Position (crop + carry-in): 79.3%
- ⚠️ Shortages in Carmel SSR 25/27, 27/30 & 30/32
- 🧊 Remaining inventory is dominated by large calibres (NP Extra, Carmel Sup)
Current Prices (FAS California, USD/lb)
| Product | Price Range |
|---|---|
| STD-5% | $3.20 – $3.25 |
| NPX 23/25 | $3.40 – $3.45 |
| NP Inshell 27/20 | $2.43 |
| NP Inshell 23/25 | $2.50 |
📉 The weaker U.S. Dollar has increased competitiveness in global markets.
🔮 4. Outlook & Recommendations
Outlook
- 📦 May shipments are expected to exceed last year
- 🇨🇳 Trade deal between China & USA announced, markets surged
- 🌎 Potential impact on almond demand and other global agreements
Recommendations
For Sellers:
✅ Leverage strong demand in India, the Middle East
✅ Lock in prices now, especially for small calibres
For Buyers:
✅ Advance coverage is recommended as supply tightens
✅ Monitor USD trends for favourable pricing
🌰 WALNUT MARKET REPORT – APRIL 2025 🌰
📊 Shipment Summary
| Category | April 2025 | April 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inshell | 4.90 M lbs | 21.20 M lbs | -77% |
| Kernels | 45.80 M lbs | 55.91 M lbs | -18.1% |
| YTD Inshell | — | — | -56.2% |
| YTD Kernels | — | — | -19.0% |
🌱 Crop
- Conventional: 589,557 tons
- Organic: 14,807 tons
- 📉 9.8% below forecast (670,000 tons)
📈 Market Conditions & Forecast
- 💤 The market has been quiet for the past 4 weeks
- ❄️ Some sellers are making aggressive offers to avoid cold storage
- 📍 Chilean suppliers sold strongly to India, prices rising
- 🇺🇸 California expects 700,000-ton crop for 2025
- 🇨🇳 China also signals a slight crop increase
- 🚚 With Turkey down 80%, Dubai -85%, Morocco -80% — lower CA opening prices may revive inshell markets
