California Walnut Market – Sharp Decline in April Shipments

California Walnut Market – Sharp Decline in April Shipments 🌰

📍 Inshell exports down 77% year-over-year – Market remains quiet, pressure on inventories builds

April 2025 walnut shipments from California showed a sharp downturn. Inshell exports dropped by -77%, while kernel shipments were down -18.1% compared to April 2024. With the total crop coming in below forecast, market activity has slowed, and unsold inventories are becoming a growing concern.

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📊 1. Market Overview: Shipment Trends

April Shipment Comparison

Category	April 2025	April 2024	Change
Inshell	4.90 million lbs	21.20 million lbs	-77%
Kernels	45.80 million lbs	55.91 million lbs	-18.1%
YTD Inshell	—	—	-56.2%
YTD Kernels	—	—	-19.0%

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🌱 2. Crop & Production Data

• 2024 Conventional Crop: 589,557 tons
• 2024 Organic Crop: 14,807 tons
• 📉 -9.8% below the forecast of 670,000 tons

📌 This marks the second consecutive below-average crop year for California.

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📈 3. Market Trends & Buyer Behaviour

• 💤 The market has remained mostly quiet for the past four weeks
• ❄️ Some suppliers are making aggressive offers to avoid high cold storage costs
• 🌍 Chile reported strong sales to India during the INC Conference in Mallorca
• 💵 Chilean prices have increased slightly, indicating growing demand
• 🇺🇸 California suppliers project a 2025 crop of 700,000 tons
• 🇨🇳 Chinese suppliers also expect a slight increase in production

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🌍 4. Export Markets & Demand Potential

Year-over-Year Declines in Key Destinations

Market	Year-on-Year Change
🇹🇷 Turkey	-80%
🇦🇪 Dubai	-85%
🇲🇦 Morocco	-80%

📌 These sharp declines could present an opportunity for California walnuts to regain market share—if entry prices are attractive enough.

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🔮 5. Outlook & Recommendations

Outlook

• 🧊 Demand remains sluggish, especially from the Middle East and North Africa
• 🌱 Summer weather will be critical in determining global supply for 2025
• 📦 Inventory pressure rising as unsold product accumulates

Recommendations

For Sellers:
✅ Offer early to avoid costly cold storage fees
✅ Target key export markets with competitive pricing (e.g., Turkey, Morocco, UAE)

For Buyers:
✅ Use this period to secure value-based purchases
✅ Be aware of potential tightness in certain grades later in the year