Cashew Market 2026: Africa’s Crop Surge, Vietnam’s Export Record, and Margin Challenges

The global cashew market is navigating a phase of cautious recovery, with fundamentals aligned for a year of improved trade and supply chain stability. Output is expanding in both African and Asian producing hubs, following a season of favorable crop conditions. Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, and Ghana have shown notable gains in raw cashew nut availability, which in turn is bolstering the pipeline for the world’s dominant processors in Vietnam and India. While Vietnam has set a new record in exports, profit margins are under strain as procurement costs climb and global demand exhibits signs of softness. India, meanwhile, maintains its position as both a processing powerhouse and a stable, robust consumption market, with exports still favored into the US, EU, and Middle East, though competition on price and sourcing is intensifying globally.

The United States and European Union remain critical destinations, while China’s rising importance in import activity adds another dimension to the evolving trade landscape. With improved African production stabilizing supply, but procurement costs challenging margins, participants in the market are preparing for a year where operational efficiency will matter more than high prices. Overall, the sector is showing signs of stabilization after recent volatility, paving the way for measured optimism.

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📈 Prices

Type	Origin	Location	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Last Update	Sentiment
WW240	Vietnam	Hanoi	7.75	7.70	2026-02-21	Firm
WS	Vietnam	Hanoi	5.75	5.70	2026-02-21	Stable
SP	Vietnam	Hanoi	4.30	4.25	2026-02-21	Cautious
WW320	Vietnam	Hanoi	6.85	6.80	2026-02-21	Steady
W320	India	New Delhi	6.93	6.88	2026-02-21	Steady
W320 (Organic)	India	New Delhi	8.61	8.56	2026-02-21	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Strong African Output: Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, and Ghana report improved crops, boosting global raw nut supply.
• Vietnam Dominates Processing: Vietnam’s processed cashew exports exceeded USD 5 billion, highlighting its central role, but profit margins are squeezed by expensive raw nut imports.
• India’s Dual Role: India remains an anchor for processing and consumption, with stable domestic and export activity, especially to the US, EU, and Middle East.
• Global Trade Patterns: The US is still the largest buyer, but price sensitivity has increased competition. Chinese import demand is growing, adding to global dynamics. The EU’s steady demand remains a backbone but not a growth driver for exports.

📊 Fundamentals

• Raw Material Costs: Though African production is up, some regions see high procurement prices, compressing processor margins — a significant industry concern.
• Processing Hubs: Vietnam and India are the largest global processors, both relying on strong supply chains linking Africa and Asia.
• Profit Margins: Despite record export figures, sustained profitability will depend on efficient operations and supply chain cost management as prices are not expected to spike strongly this year.

☁️ Weather Outlook

• African growing regions enjoyed favorable weather in this crop cycle, contributing directly to larger harvests in Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, and Ghana.
• Key Asian regions remain stable with no immediate climatic threats on the horizon for Vietnam or India.
• Potential weather volatility remains a risk for the forthcoming season, but the current outlook supports further supply stability.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• Africa: Largest producer of raw cashew nuts (Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, Ghana). Improved output supports global supply chain.
• Vietnam: Leading processor/exporter. Dependence on African raw nut imports remains high.
• India: Major processor and consumer market.
• US/EU/China: Principal importers, with China’s buy-in showing the fastest expansion trend this year.

📝 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor raw nut procurement costs in Africa closely; high prices may tighten processor margins in the coming months.
• Expect processed kernel prices to remain steady to firm due to stable demand and improved production.
• Traders should prioritize efficient supply chain and inventory management rather than speculative positioning.
• Keep an eye on global shipping disruptions and currency fluctuations, both influential for major exporters (Vietnam, India).
• Attention to US tariff and trade policy remains crucial for Indian exporters targeting Western markets.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region	Kernels Type	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Expected Trend (3 Days)	Sentiment
Hanoi (Vietnam)	WW240	7.75	Steady to Slightly Higher	Firm
New Delhi (India)	W320	6.93	Steady	Stable
Dordrecht (Netherlands)	WW320	5.00	Stable	Balanced

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