Cashew Market Heats Up: Strong Southern Crops, US Tariff Relief, Global Demand Surge

The cashew market is entering a dynamic period characterized by a substantial rebound in Southern Hemisphere crops and invigorated demand across global markets. This year’s Tanzanian cashew crop is projected to reach more than 500,000 metric tons, a remarkable jump from last year’s 420,000 MT, while Mozambique is expecting a 15% increase. On the demand side, robust consumption continues in India and the EU, with exports from Vietnam up by 3% year-to-date, mainly to China, the Middle East, and Europe. A pivotal turn has been the removal of US tariffs on cashew kernels, which has quickly reignited buying interest among American importers and prompted expectations of a resurgence in domestic consumption. Indian festival-driven demand has left local spot RCN inventories thin, pushing Indian buyers toward Tanzanian auctions.

Yet, the bullish mood faces a few moderating factors. Many European and Asian buyers have already covered their needs through Q4 and early Q1, which could result in a near-term lull before new forward contracts hit the books. Weather conditions across growing regions remain favorable, with no immediate threats, suggesting that supply-side pressures are contained for now. The interplay between buoyant global demand, positive crop prospects, and shifting trade policies is making for an exciting, albeit volatile, close to the year for cashews. Expect pricing and trading strategies to require extra vigilance as these powerful trends collide.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Location	Delivery Terms	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date	Sentiment
India	W320	New Delhi	FOB	6.88	6.85	2025-12-05	Bullish
India	W450	New Delhi	FOB	6.17	6.15	2025-12-05	Firm
Vietnam	WW320	Hanoi	FOB	6.83	6.80	2025-12-05	Bullish
Vietnam	WW240	Hanoi	FOB	7.73	7.70	2025-12-05	Stable
Netherlands	WW320	Dordrecht	FCA	4.90	4.90	2025-12-05	Firm
Netherlands	FS	Dordrecht	FCA	3.60	3.60	2025-12-05	Stable
Germany (ex VN)	SP	Hamburg	FCA	2.50	–	2025-12-01	Soft

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Tanzania: Crop forecast risen to 500,000+ MT (vs 420,000 MT LY).
• Mozambique: Crop up 15% from previous year.
• Asia & Africa: Processing stable; Vietnamese exports +3% YTD, mainly to China, Middle East, EU.
• India: Domestic festival demand strong, spot RCN stocks low; Indian buyers active in Tanzanian auctions.
• US: Tariff removal accelerates inquiries from buyers; demand recovery expected in Q1.
• EU: Consistent forward interest on strengthening Euro.

📊 Fundamentals

• The Southern Hemisphere harvest is off to a strong start—boosting global supply.
• Diminished stocks in India post-festival season drive additional procurement.
• Vietnam maintains its role as top kernel exporter, with demand especially from China and EU.
• Removal of US tariffs shifts sentiment and could increase Q1 shipments to the US.
• Most buyers have current coverage for Q4/Q1; near-term spot purchases may moderate.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Key growing regions (East Africa, Vietnam, India) report steady, favorable weather with no major disruptions forecasted.
• Continued benign weather expected to support yield potential in both Tanzania and Mozambique.
• Short-term risk of rains in Mozambique, but not expected to hamper harvest or drying activities.

📦 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024 Crop Estimate (MT)	2023 Crop (MT)	2024 Stock/Total Supply Trend
Tanzania	500,000+	420,000	Up
Mozambique	~180,000*	~156,500*	Up (est. +15%)
Vietnam*	~450,000*	~450,000*	Stable
India (kernels)	–	–	Spot stocks low, demand high

*Estimated values; actual 2024 crops to be updated as harvest progresses.

📝 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• ⚡ Bullish: Strong Southern crop, revived US demand post-tariff, firm EU forward buying suggest positive price support into early 2026.
• 🔎 Bearish: Q4 and Q1 covered means a lull in new buying could limit further near-term rallies.
• 🛒 Recommendations for buyers:
  • Secure spot or short-term needs before US/EU demand resurges in Q1 2026.
  • Monitor Tanzanian auctions, as Indian buyers’ activity may intensify and tighten supply.
  • Avoid long positions until next round of fund buying appears or if crop/weather risks intensify.
• 💡 Recommendations for sellers:
  • Consider locking in forwards while spot prices hold firm, especially ahead of Q2 demand cycle.
  • Track US import data and kernel inventory trends for signs of sustained recovery.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Origins)

Origin	Type	Current (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Trend
India	W320	6.88	6.85 – 7.00	Bullish
Vietnam	WW320	6.83	6.80 – 6.95	Stable to Firm
Netherlands	WW320	4.90	4.90 – 5.00	Stable