The cashew market continues to face a period of sluggishness, with prices showing little sign of recovery despite upward pressure from higher input costs. Notably, the benchmark price for the popular cashew grade (180 count) remains steady at $13.50 per kg, whereas localized price gains of $0.24–$0.30 per kg have done little to lift market sentiment. A near 50% increase in stock arrivals in recent weeks has alarmed traders who now cite oversupply as the main factor weighing on prices. With buyers largely standing on the sidelines and demand struggling to pick up, most market participants expect this phase of softness to persist unless a significant uptick in consumption materializes.
This comes as a contrast to previous bullish periods when fast-depleting inventories and robust demand underpinned stronger prices. Producers and processors are now hoping for improved offtake in the coming weeks, though the outlook remains cautious as record inventories continue to cast a long shadow.
📈 Latest Cashew Prices
| Type | Origin | Location | Delivery | Organic | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price | Change | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FS | Netherlands | Dordrecht | FCA | No | 3.90 | 3.95 | -0.05 | 2025-09-11 |
| WW320 | Netherlands | Dordrecht | FCA | No | 5.20 | 5.25 | -0.05 | 2025-09-11 |
| WW320 | Netherlands | Dordrecht | FCA | Yes | 6.30 | 6.34 | -0.04 | 2025-09-11 |
| WW240 | Vietnam | Hanoi | FOB | No | 7.75 | 7.75 | 0.00 | 2025-09-06 |
| W320 | India | New Delhi | FOB | No | 6.89 | 6.89 | 0.00 | 2025-09-06 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Overview
- Stocks: Recent weeks have seen arrivals swell by nearly 50%, resulting in high inventory levels for processors and importers.
- Demand: End-user and retail offtake has remained lackluster, with buyers refraining from bulk purchases while waiting for further market clarity or better pricing.
- Previous Comparison: The last market report noted marginal improvements in demand outlook and relatively tighter stocks, whereas the current sentiment is more bearish due to sustained oversupply.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Benchmark Price: $13.50/kg for 180 count, unchanged.
- Regional Moves: Gains of $0.24–$0.30/kg in select regions did not change overall market direction.
- Speculative Positioning: Traders remain short-term cautious, expecting sideways to weak price trends unless demand surprises to the upside.
- External Factors: Currency fluctuations, notably in major exporting countries (India, Vietnam), may affect export competitiveness if trends persist.
- Production Updates: No major disruptions reported; crop estimates from West Africa, India, and Vietnam support ample supply outlook.
⛅ Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions
- India & Vietnam: Recent conditions are seasonally normal with no major weather-related production threats reported. Adequate rainfall and moderate temperatures are supportive for late harvest quality.
- West Africa: Reports describe consistent rainfall and stable growing environment, minimizing near-term weather risk for main crops.
- Yield Impact: Current forecasts imply that weather will continue to provide a neutral to slightly positive influence on global supply in the coming weeks.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Situation
| Country | 2024/25 Est. Production (000 MT) | Stock Level (000 MT) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 770 | 144 | Ample supply, inventories above seasonal average |
| Vietnam | 540 | 120 | Processing capacity fully utilized |
| Nigeria | 290 | 40 | Supply steady; weather favorable |
| Côte d’Ivoire | 820 | 155 | Leading exporter, robust arrivals |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🟡 Wait-and-watch approach advised for buyers until clear signs of demand revival emerge.
- 🔵 Sellers with high inventories should prioritize quick sales to avoid downside risk.
- 🔴 Do not engage in speculative buying unless there is evidence of a material shift in demand or a crop disruption event.
- 🟢 Monitor currency movements and regional export offers closely for any signs of improved competitiveness.
- ⚪ Consider long-term contracts if retail demand signals improvement, locking in favorable rates.
📅 3-Day Forecast for Key Markets
| Market | Type | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast Range | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dordrecht | WW320 | 5.20 | 5.15 – 5.25 | Stable/Weak |
| Hanoi | WW240 | 7.75 | 7.70 – 7.80 | Flat |
| New Delhi | W320 | 6.89 | 6.80 – 6.95 | Stable/Down |
