Cashews Under Pressure: Big 2025/26 Crop Caps Kernel Prices

Global cashew supply is set to rise sharply in 2025/26, pointing to a bearish-to-stable outlook for raw cashew nuts (RCN) and contained kernel prices, despite localized tightness in some export segments.

Global production growth is being driven mainly by Africa and India, while Vietnam and Brazil face modest declines. This shift will likely re-route trade flows toward African origins and Indian processors, reinforcing a buyer-friendly environment in RCN and putting a ceiling on kernel prices unless demand accelerates. At the same time, current kernel quotations from Vietnam, India and Europe suggest a broadly stable market over the past weeks with only marginal adjustments. For now, cashew fundamentals look comfortable, and demand and processing margins will be the key variables to watch into the new season.

📈 Prices & Market Tone

Global sentiment in cashews is bearish to stable, consistent with expectations of a well-supplied 2025/26 season. FOB New Delhi prices for conventional W320 kernels are around €6.95/kg, with W240 at about €7.46/kg and SWP pieces near €5.20/kg. Vietnam FOB Hanoi offers indicate WW320 around €6.85/kg and WW240 close to €7.75/kg, while European FCA Dordrecht WW320 is quoted near €5.05/kg, reflecting logistics and origin differentials rather than a strong directional trend.

Price movements since late February 2026 have been minimal, with only a few cent adjustments per kilo in India and the Netherlands, and flat levels in Vietnam. This pattern underlines a market that has largely priced in the expected production surge, with limited speculative tightening. Buyers currently have time and leverage to negotiate, especially on larger volumes and mid-grade material.

Origin / Location	Grade	Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1–3 Week Trend
India – New Delhi	W320, conv.	FOB	€6.95	Flat / marginally softer
India – New Delhi	W240, conv.	FOB	€7.46	Flat
Vietnam – Hanoi	WW320, conv.	FOB	€6.85	Flat
Vietnam – Hanoi	WW240, conv.	FOB	€7.75	Flat
Netherlands – Dordrecht	WW320, conv.	FCA	€5.05	Flat

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

Global RCN production in 2025/26 is projected at 6.38 million tonnes, up from 5.36 million tonnes in 2024/25—an impressive ~19% year-on-year increase. The bulk of this growth comes from Africa: Côte d’Ivoire is expected to rise to 1.5 million tonnes (from 1.2 million), Cambodia to 0.93 million tonnes, Tanzania to 0.50 million tonnes and Nigeria to 0.37 million tonnes, with Guinea-Bissau, Benin and Burkina Faso also posting strong gains.

India is another key driver, with production projected at 0.725 million tonnes versus 0.615 million tonnes last season. This additional raw material should support robust domestic processing and potentially higher kernel export volumes. By contrast, Vietnam and Brazil are expected to see modest declines to 0.32 million tonnes and 0.136 million tonnes respectively, which could slightly tighten supply for some export niches but is more than offset by African and Indian growth.

On the demand side, global kernel consumption is growing, but not at a pace that would fully absorb a near-20% jump in RCN output in a single season. Unless demand surprises to the upside—through expanded use in snacks, confectionery and plant-based products—buyers are likely to face comfortable coverage opportunities, while processors may see margin pressure, particularly in more commoditized grades.

📊 Fundamentals & Structural Shifts

The strong African crop solidifies the region’s role as the primary engine of global RCN supply. Countries such as Côte d’Ivoire, Tanzania, Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau, Benin and Burkina Faso are all expanding output, and several smaller origins in West Africa (Togo, Senegal, Gambia, Mali) are also reporting gains. This will continue to draw more traders and processors toward African supply chains, with implications for freight, financing and quality management.

India’s sizeable production increase improves raw material security for its processing industry, favouring higher utilization rates and sustained export competitiveness. Meanwhile, the combination of flat to slightly lower production in Vietnam and Brazil and a well-supplied global balance sheet suggests that these origins may compete more aggressively on kernels rather than on raw nuts. Overall, fundamentals point to a well-supplied, buyer-leaning market for 2025/26.

🌦️ Weather Outlook (Key Regions)

With the 2025/26 crop already projected and much of the flowering and fruit set phases either completed or underway, weather risks are more about localized quality and harvest logistics than large-scale yield losses. In India and major West African origins, near-term conditions will mainly influence nut moisture, drying and post-harvest quality. Unless there is an abrupt shift to extreme rainfall or heat stress in the coming weeks, the current production outlook is unlikely to change materially.

📆 Trading & Risk Management Outlook

• Buyers (roasters, packers, retailers): Use the current bearish-to-stable sentiment and abundant 2025/26 supply projections to secure medium-term coverage on core grades (W320, W240), especially from Africa- and India-linked supply chains. Negotiate aggressively on volume and payment terms rather than chasing last-minute spot positions.
• Importers & traders: Focus on origin diversification, with increased exposure to Africa and India where RCN availability is rising fastest. Be selective with long positions in premium grades, as price upside appears capped unless demand surprises strongly; hedge currency and freight where possible rather than betting on outright price rallies.
• Processors: Prepare for margin compression in standard grades by optimizing yields, quality differentiation and value-added offerings (roasted, flavoured, organic, certified). Given the strong crop, disciplined procurement and inventory management will be more important than aggressive price expectations.

📉 Short-Term Price Indication (3-Day View)

• India – New Delhi FOB kernels (W240/W320/SWP, EUR): Prices are expected to remain broadly stable over the next three days, with a slight downside bias if early-season RCN arrivals are heavy and currency remains steady.
• Vietnam – Hanoi FOB kernels (WW240/WW320, EUR): Market likely to trade sideways, as buyers are well covered and additional global supply projections are already priced in.
• EU – Dordrecht FCA kernels (WW320, LWP, FS, EUR): Indications should stay flat, reflecting stable replacement costs and a comfortable pipeline; any moves are expected to be marginal and driven mainly by FX and freight.