Chickpeas Market Tightens: Indian Crop Woes & Aussie Drop Keep Prices Firm

The global chickpeas market is navigating a pronounced period of tightness, anchored by constrained old crop supplies and adverse weather setbacks in key Indian producing regions. In Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, stocks from the previous season are dwindling rapidly. This phenomenon is lending substantial support to price levels across the supply chain. Meanwhile, the arrival of new crop chana in Rajasthan has seen notable delays thanks to unfavourable weather, exacerbating the crunch in overall market availability.

Market participants are increasingly concerned about procurement security. Many buyers are advised to continue purchasing at prevailing prices, as both total output in the critical production state of Madhya Pradesh and import volumes from major suppliers like Australia are set to decline. The tightening is compounded by diminished overseas shipments from Australia, a trend that is forecast to limit global availability further. As a result, firm market sentiment and the prospect of restricted supply prevail. Given these undercurrents, most traders do not expect prices to ease in the near-term.

📈 Prices

Origin	Count/Size	Location	Delivery (FOB)	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Mexico	42-44, 12 mm	Mexico City	FOB	1.38	-1.4%	Firm
Mexico	75-80, 8 mm	Mexico City	FOB	0.89	-1.1%	Firm
India	60-62, 8 mm	New Delhi	FOB	0.91	-1.1%	Firm
India	58-60, 9 mm	New Delhi	FOB	0.93	-1.1%	Firm
India	46-48, 10 mm	New Delhi	FOB	0.97	-1.0%	Firm
India	44-46, 11 mm	New Delhi	FOB	1.00	-1.0%	Firm
India	42-44, 12 mm	New Delhi	FOB	1.03	-0.96%	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Old crop stockpiles are low, especially in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, underpinning current price levels.
• New crop arrivals in Rajasthan are slow and disrupted by bad weather, further tightening market availability.
• Production in Madhya Pradesh, India’s core growing state, is reported to be lower this season.
• Australian imports are expected to fall, reducing global supply and increasing reliance on existing stocks.
• Demand remains robust among buyers and processors, who are urged to maintain current procurement rates.

📊 Fundamentals

• Market sentiment is firm and confident, anchored by restricted supply in India and lower imports from Australia.
• Trade sources report little likelihood of price relief in the near-term under current supply conditions.
• Mandis (markets) are experiencing lower arrivals and stronger competition for available stocks.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• India (Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh): Recent adverse weather has delayed harvest and reduced overall output, increasing the risk of further supply-side pressures should unfavorable conditions continue.
• Australia: No immediate weather shocks reported, but exportable surpluses remain subdued following last season’s yield constraints.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• India: Top producer; old crop stocks tight and new crop output below average in Madhya Pradesh.
• Australia: Major exporter; supplies expected to remain lower year-on-year, with less volume reaching key markets.
• Importers: Availability for Europe, Middle East, and North Africa dependent on Indian supply and subdued Australian exports.

🧭 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers should maintain procurement at current price levels due to no imminent downtrend in prices.
• Monitor further weather disruptions in Indian growing areas, as additional setbacks could spike prices further.
• Keep an eye on potential policy or trade developments affecting exports from key suppliers.
• Consider staggered purchases to mitigate risk from further supply shocks.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast (Indicative FOB)

Origin	Size	Day 1 (EUR/kg)	Day 2 (EUR/kg)	Day 3 (EUR/kg)
India (New Delhi)	42-44, 12 mm	1.03	1.03	1.04
India (New Delhi)	60-62, 8 mm	0.91	0.91	0.92
Mexico (Mexico City)	42-44, 12 mm	1.38	1.38	1.39