China Beans Market Tightens Amid High Sales Progress and Low Farm Stocks

The Chinese beans market is entering a pivotal stage this season, with sales progress for the 2024 crop nearing completion across the main producing regions. As of this week, approximately 91% of Adzuki (red) bean stocks have been marketed nationwide, reaching an impressive 95%-97% in Northeast China’s Heilongjiang province, where most growers have already sold out due to a sharp drop in sown area. Meanwhile, Shaanxi province stands at 86%, and Jilin province at 95%, reflecting robust sales momentum. Trade inventories are modest, with most merchants and processors holding only 200-300 tonnes of new crop, and just a few reporting stocks surpassing 500 tonnes. Notably, a limited carryover of old crop persists. These market factors—combined with a steady, albeit slightly strengthening price environment—signal growing tightness in the weeks ahead, particularly as planting reductions come to bear on forward supply.

Internationally, bean prices reflect similar firmness, with only slight weekly changes but a prevailing undertone of firmness. On the supply side, continued drawdowns in farmer-held stocks contrast with moderate end-user demand, especially among food processors and exporters. Macro factors including South American and European production, shifting global demand dynamics, and ongoing weather risks continue to shape price sentiment. Looking ahead, weather in China’s Northeast and central provinces, as well as in global competing origins, will be critical in guiding the next price move. Overall, the Chinese beans market is poised for a phase of limited spot activity, with lower inventories underpinning price resilience and setting the stage for possible further gains.

📈 Prices: Latest Market Overview

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Organic	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Mung beans	Organic, 99.5%	CN	Beijing	Yes	1.51	1.50	+0.7%	Firm
Mung beans	3.8 mm up, 99.5%	CN	Beijing	No	1.42	1.41	+0.7%	Steady
Kidney beans	Small, black, organic	CN	Beijing	Yes	1.50	1.52	-1.3%	Resilient
Kidney beans	Large, white, organic	CN	Beijing	Yes	3.35	3.37	-0.6%	Softening
Adzuki beans	Red, organic, 5.0 mm up	CN	Beijing	Yes	1.56	1.58	-1.3%	Stable
Adzuki beans	Red, 5.0 mm up	CN	Beijing	No	1.47	1.49	-1.3%	Stable
Kidney beans	Dark red, organic	CN	Beijing	Yes	2.47	2.49	-0.8%	Stable
Kidney beans	Black	CN	Beijing	No	1.48	1.50	-1.3%	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• China’s 2024 farmer sales progress has reached 91% for Adzuki beans nationally; Heilongjiang and Jilin nearly sold out due to acute area reduction.
• Inventory in merchants and factories is tight, mostly ranging 200-300 tonnes, exacerbating the risk of short-term spot squeezes.
• Shaanxi and other central provinces have slightly more unmarketed stock but are catching up rapidly.
• Downward sowing trend, especially in Heilongjiang, likely to restrict future supplies.
• Global export origins remain steady—with South America and Europe showing ample, but not burdensome, supply.
• Stable to moderately robust demand in China for food processing and export continues to absorb available beans efficiently.

📊 Key Fundamentals

• Market is underpinned by advanced sales, low remaining farm-held stock, and modest trade inventories.
• Domestic prices are slightly up or steady, with organic and special grades commanding premiums.
• Internationally, competitive beans from Brazil and the UK show mostly sideways to slightly weaker weekly moves.
• Fewer leftover stocks from the previous harvest mean less buffer against any new demand surges or supply interruptions.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Yield Risk Analysis

• Heilongjiang/Jilin: Current weather is average-to-warm with near-normal rainfall. The seasonal outlook suggests potential for patchy dryness but not yet at stress levels.
• Shaanxi: Mixed cloud and rain in the coming week may support soil moisture but monitor for excessive swings impacting late-planted beans.
• Global Hotspots: Brazil’s bean belts face intermittent rainfall helping pod fill; pockets of dryness in Europe could impact late flowering fields.
• Conclusion: Weather risks in key Chinese and global origins remain moderate—any emerging stress, especially from drought, could add further bullish support in the coming weeks.

🌏 Production & Stocks: Global Snapshot

Country	2024 Production (est., kt)	2024 Stocks (kt)	Change vs. 2023
China	750*	80*	-7% (area drop)
Brazil	700	110	+2% (stable, weather conditions favourable)
United Kingdom	150	25	Unchanged

*Estimates based on local trade and provincial sales data

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Spot market tightness favors holding existing positions or engaging in buybacks on modest dips.
• Organic and premium grades remain particularly resilient—look for outperformance versus conventional beans.
• Risk of upward price spikes rises if any adverse weather hits key Northeast China or global competitors.
• End-users encouraged to secure forward needs given low trade inventories and diminished farm offers.
• Exporters advised to monitor South American shipments for shifts in price competitiveness.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Product	Origin	Location	Current Price (EUR)	Forecast Range (EUR)
Mung beans, Organic	CN	Beijing	1.51	1.50 – 1.54
Kidney beans, Small Black, Org.	CN	Beijing	1.50	1.49 – 1.53
Adzuki beans, Red, Org. 5mm+	CN	Beijing	1.56	1.54 – 1.58

Exchange rates, global shipment logistics, and weather carry risk of slight price volatility in next 72 hours.