China Pumpkin Seed Market Outlook: Prices Under Pressure Amid Weak Demand and High Stocks

 

The Chinese pumpkin seed market is entering a period of notable price correction as both domestic and international demand remain subdued. According to recent feedback from market participants, the focus among inventory holders has shifted toward destocking, with expectations of a significant price decline throughout June. Export volumes for 2024-2025 are projected to decrease year-on-year, with primary markets concentrated in the Middle East, Europe, and Southeast Asia.

This contraction in export demand, coupled with persistent inventory, is likely to put further downward pressure on prices in the near term. In addition, the overall sentiment is bearish, as traders and processors anticipate a challenging environment for the coming months. Weather conditions in major growing regions remain stable for now, but any adverse developments could provide limited support to prices. However, the dominant narrative is one of oversupply and weak demand, making it a critical juncture for market participants to reassess their positions and strategies.

📈 Prices

Product	Type / Grade	Purity	Organic	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (USD/kg)	Previous Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Pumpkin seed kernels	shine skin, grade aa	99.95%	Yes	CN	Beijing	FOB	2.58	2.60	-0.02	Bearish
Pumpkin seed kernels	shine skin, grade aa	99.95%	No	CN	Beijing	FOB	2.50	2.52	-0.02	Bearish
Pumpkin seed kernels	shine skin, grade a+	99.95%	No	CN	Beijing	FOB	1.55	1.53	+0.02	Stable
Pumpkin seed kernels	gws, grade aa	99.95%	No	CN	Beijing	FOB	2.38	2.40	-0.02	Bearish
Pumpkin seed kernels	gws, grade a	99.95%	No	CN	Beijing	FOB	2.22	2.24	-0.02	Bearish
Pumpkin seeds kernels	gws, grade aa	99.95%	No	CN	Dalian	FOB	3.35	3.35	0.00	Stable
Pumpkin seeds kernels	gws, grade a	99.95%	No	CN	Dalian	FOB	3.16	3.16	0.00	Stable
Pumpkin seeds kernels	shine skin, grade aa	99.95%	No	CN	Dalian	FOB	3.48	3.48	0.00	Stable
Pumpkin seeds kernels	shine skin, grade a	99.95%	No	CN	Dalian	FOB	2.77	2.77	0.00	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Export demand for Chinese pumpkin seed kernels is weak, with 2024-2025 export volumes expected to decline year-on-year.
• Major export destinations remain the Middle East, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
• Inventory holders are prioritising stock liquidation, further pressuring prices.
• Domestic demand is also sluggish, with little sign of near-term recovery.

📊 Fundamentals

• High inventory levels are the dominant market feature, with limited buying interest from both domestic and foreign buyers.
• Speculative activity is low, as most market participants expect further price declines.
• No significant policy interventions or new trade barriers reported.
• Comparison with last report: Market sentiment has shifted from cautious to clearly bearish, with export expectations further downgraded.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Current weather in key Chinese growing regions is generally favourable, supporting crop development.
• No major weather disruptions are expected in the next two weeks, suggesting stable yield prospects for the upcoming harvest.
• However, any unexpected adverse weather could provide only limited price support given the current oversupply.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

• China remains the world’s leading producer and exporter of pumpkin seed kernels.
• Global inventories are ample, with no major supply shocks reported in other key exporting countries.
• Importing countries in the Middle East, Europe, and Southeast Asia are well supplied, curbing additional buying interest.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bearish sentiment dominates: further price declines are likely in June as inventories are worked down and demand remains weak.
• Buyers: Wait for additional price correction before entering the market, unless urgent needs arise.
• Sellers: Prioritise destocking and be flexible on pricing to secure sales in a competitive market.
• Watch for any unexpected weather events that could temporarily support prices, but do not rely on this as a main driver.
• Monitor export trends closely, especially in key destinations, for early signs of demand recovery.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region	Product	Current Price (USD/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Trend
Beijing	Pumpkin seed kernels, shine skin, grade aa	2.58	2.54 – 2.56	⬇️
Beijing	Pumpkin seed kernels, shine skin, grade aa (non-organic)	2.50	2.46 – 2.48	⬇️
Dalian	Pumpkin seeds kernels, shine skin, grade aa	3.48	3.44 – 3.46	⬇️