Chinese Pumpkin Market: Prices Hold Steady Amid Quality Divide & Cautious Demand

The Chinese pumpkin seed market is navigating a season of complex contradiction, with sharp quality segmentation and divergent demand channels shaping the latest price movements. Recent market activity reveals subdued transaction intensity, as buyers and sellers contend with “regionally autonomous operations and localized supply-demand battles.” Quality remains the pivotal determinant in both liquidity and price direction: higher-grade lots are moving with some resistance, while lower qualities face tightening export prospects. Export orders are sparse and fragmented, with bulk procurement rarer than previous years. Rising quality requirements overseas are compressing the export channel for lower-grade goods, steadily eroding their price and end-market support. Meanwhile, within China, end-users—primarily in the classic roasted snack sector—continue a just-in-time, needs-driven procurement pattern. No significant restocking has been triggered, and enterprises are pacing purchases to match ongoing consumption, further muting overall market enthusiasm.

This market stasis is mirrored by the recent price table: premium organic kernels are little changed, while conventional high grades are modestly softer. Outlook is therefore finely balanced, hinging on further stratification by quality, export channel access, and potential shifts in domestic end-use or weather-driven supply disruptions.

📈 Latest Market Prices

Product	Grade	Cert.	Origin	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Update Date
Pumpkin seed kernels (Shine Skin)	AA, Organic	99.95%	Beijing	3.36	+0.01	2025-12-11
Pumpkin seed kernels (Shine Skin)	AA	99.95%	Beijing	3.17	-0.10	2025-12-11
Pumpkin seed kernels (Shine Skin)	A+	99.95%	Beijing	2.20	-0.04	2025-12-11
Pumpkin seed kernels (GWS)	AA	99.95%	Beijing	2.95	-0.16	2025-12-11
Pumpkin seed kernels (GWS)	A	99.95%	Beijing	2.22	-0.08	2025-12-11
Pumpkin seed kernels (Shine Skin)	A	99.95%	Dalian	2.75	0.00	2025-12-06
Pumpkin seed kernels (Shine Skin)	AA	99.95%	Dalian	3.45	0.00	2025-12-06
Pumpkin seed kernels (GWS)	AA	99.95%	Dalian	3.34	0.00	2025-12-06
Pumpkin seed kernels (GWS)	A	99.95%	Dalian	3.15	0.00	2025-12-06

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• Domestic: Demand in core snack and roasting channels is stable but lacks incremental growth. Processors and roasting companies are purchasing as needed, refraining from large-scale stockpiling.
• Exports: Smaller, fragmented orders dominate. High entry requirements by overseas buyers are limiting exports of lower-quality product, and support from the export channel is weakening further.
• Quality Segmentation: Quality differences are at the heart of market dynamics. Higher-quality lots hold firmer, while lower-quality goods face restricted liquidity.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Pumpkin seed inventory remains at manageable levels; no visible glut, but no supply-driven upward catalyst either.
• Pricing and movement efficiency are increasingly tied to strict quality standards, both domestically and abroad.
• Speculative activity is minimal given flat demand and risk-averse end-users.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Key Regions: North China Plains and Inner Mongolia are major production zones.
• Recent weather has been seasonally stable with no severe yield threats. However, any unseasonable frost or cold snap could impact remaining harvest and post-harvest handling.
• Medium-term weather forecast suggests continued cool and dry conditions, favoring product quality but limiting late field work.

🌐 Major Global Flows & Stocks

Country	Production (Est. 2024/25, 1,000 MT)	Key Role	Stock Trend
China	850	World’s largest producer & exporter	Flat/Moderate drawdown
USA	105	Exporter, processor	Modest
Austria	30	Premium niche exporter	Stable/Low
Turkey	65	Supplier to EU & Middle East	Static
India	32	Growing exporter	Flat

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📉 Short-Term: Prices may slip in lower-quality segments due to export bottlenecks and tepid domestic restocking.
• 🟰 Steady for Premiums: High-quality, especially organic AA grades, expected to remain stable.
• ⏳ Watch Mid-Quality: Mid-range qualities are most vulnerable to further price erosion without renewed demand or supply issues.
• 🔭 Buyers: Continue just-in-time strategies. Consider selective accumulation if signs of late-season weather threats emerge.
• 🔍 Sellers: Prioritize shipments of premium grades; monitor closely for export order opportunities as quality standards tighten.

⏲️ 3-Day Price Forecast

Product	Location	Current (EUR/kg)	3-Day Outlook	Sentiment
Shine Skin AA, Organic	Beijing	3.36	3.35 – 3.37	Stable
Shine Skin AA	Beijing	3.17	3.15 – 3.17	Soft
Shine Skin A+	Beijing	2.20	2.18 – 2.20	Cautious
GWS AA	Beijing	2.95	2.93 – 2.96	Soft
Shine Skin AA	Dalian	3.45	3.45	Firm