The cinnamon market is experiencing a period of steady pricing and robust supply, underpinned by recent advancements in Indian spice research. The introduction of high-yielding varieties like Nityashree and Navashree, released by the Indian Spices Research Institute of ICAR, is reshaping the landscape for both domestic farmers and global buyers. These varieties offer yields of 200-250 kg per hectare, with the first harvest ready in just three years—an attractive proposition for growers seeking quicker returns and improved quality. India’s focus on quality and adaptability is strengthening its position in the global spice trade, especially as demand for premium, organic, and aromatic cinnamon rises. Meanwhile, prices remain stable across key product types, with organic Ceylon cinnamon sticks and powder holding firm in New Delhi, and Vietnamese cassia products offering competitive alternatives. Weather conditions in India and Vietnam, the two pivotal origins, remain favorable, supporting a positive outlook for the upcoming harvest. As global inventories remain balanced and speculative activity subdued, the market is poised for gradual growth, with India’s innovation and sustainability efforts at the forefront.
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Ceylon cinnamon
sticks
FOB 7.80 €/kg
(from IN)
Ceylon cinnamon
powder
FOB 7.23 €/kg
(from IN)
Cinnamon
cassias sticks
FOB 7.23 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | FOB Price (USD/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceylon cinnamon | Sticks | IN | New Delhi | 7.80 | 0% | Stable |
| Ceylon cinnamon | Powder | IN | New Delhi | 7.23 | 0% | Stable |
| Cinnamon | Cassia sticks | IN | New Delhi | 7.23 | 0% | Stable |
| Cinnamon | Cassia split | VN | Hanoi | 2.67 | 0% | Stable |
| Cinnamon | Cassia powder | IN | New Delhi | 4.90 | 0% | Stable |
| Cinnamon | Cassia cigarette | VN | Hanoi | 5.03 | 0% | Stable |
| Cinnamon | Cassia broken | VN | Hanoi | 2.10 | 0% | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India: Introduction of Nityashree and Navashree varieties boosts domestic supply and export potential. Both varieties offer high yields and early harvests, improving farmer profitability and supply reliability.
- Vietnam: Remains a key supplier of cassia cinnamon to global markets, with stable output and competitive pricing.
- Global Demand: Steady, driven by food, beverage, and health sectors. Preference for organic and high-aroma varieties is increasing, especially in Europe and North America.
- Inventories: Balanced, with no major stockpiles or shortages reported. Exporters are maintaining healthy pipeline inventories.
📊 Fundamentals
- Crop Innovation: Nityashree and Navashree, both released by ICAR, are tailored to Indian conditions, offering faster returns and strong aroma, meeting diverse market needs.
- Quality: Both varieties feature high oleoresin content and strong fragrance, boosting their appeal in domestic and export markets.
- Production Cycle: First crop in three years, with annual yields of 200-250 kg/ha, supports consistent supply growth.
- Market Sentiment: Neutral-to-positive, with stable prices and supportive fundamentals.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- India: Current monsoon conditions are favorable in key southern and northeastern growing regions. No major weather threats reported for the next two weeks.
- Vietnam: Weather remains stable, with adequate rainfall supporting cassia cinnamon crops. No significant concerns for the upcoming harvest window.
- Impact: Favorable weather is expected to support healthy yields and maintain quality standards for both Indian and Vietnamese crops.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024 Production (est., MT) | 2023 Production (MT) | 2024 Ending Stocks (est., MT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indonesia | 91,000 | 90,000 | 25,000 |
| Vietnam | 41,000 | 40,500 | 10,000 |
| India | 31,000 | 29,000 | 7,000 |
| Sri Lanka | 18,000 | 17,500 | 5,000 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 📌 Buyers: Secure contracts for premium Indian varieties (Nityashree, Navashree) for consistent quality and aroma.
- 📌 Sellers: Highlight the unique quality attributes of new Indian varieties to access premium markets, especially in Europe and North America.
- 📌 Traders: Monitor weather developments in India and Vietnam for any potential supply disruptions.
- 📌 Speculators: Market remains range-bound; limited upside in the short term but positive fundamentals support gradual appreciation.
- 📌 Importers: Consider diversifying sourcing between India and Vietnam for risk management and supply security.
⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Product | Origin | Location | Current Price (USD/kg) | 3-Day Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceylon cinnamon sticks | IN | New Delhi | 7.80 | 7.80 – 7.85 |
| Ceylon cinnamon powder | IN | New Delhi | 7.23 | 7.23 – 7.25 |
| Cassia sticks | IN | New Delhi | 7.23 | 7.23 – 7.25 |
| Cassia split | VN | Hanoi | 2.67 | 2.67 – 2.70 |