CMB Market Insight – USDA Raises Global Wheat Stocks Outlook for 2025–26

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecast for global wheat ending stocks for the 2025–26 season, signalling comfortable supply conditions despite record consumption and steady growth in world trade.

In its December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the USDA projected global wheat carryover at 274.9 million tonnes, up 3.4 million tonnes from November and 14.8 million tonnes higher than the estimated 260.03 million tonnes in 2024–25. If realised, this would mark the ninth-largest global wheat stock level on record.

Production Gains Offset Rising Demand

The USDA revised global wheat production for 2025–26 upward to 837.81 million tonnes, an increase of 8.92 million tonnes from November and 37.04 million tonnes higher year-on-year. The upward revision reflects stronger output expectations across several major exporters:

• Canada: Raised by 3 million tonnes to a record 40 million tonnes

• Argentina: Increased by 2 million tonnes to 24 million tonnes

• European Union: Revised to 144 million tonnes

• Australia: Raised to 37 million tonnes

• Russia: Increased to 87.5 million tonnes

Market participants noted that much of the supply-side increase had already been priced in, limiting immediate price reactions in futures markets.

Consumption Hits Record High

Global wheat consumption for 2025–26 is now forecast at a record 823 million tonnes, up 4.1 million tonnes from November and 12.2 million tonnes above last season. Higher feed and residual use in Argentina, Canada, the EU and Ukraine drove the increase.

Analysts noted that higher demand adjustments were necessary to balance the sharply improved production outlook.

Trade Outlook Improves

Global wheat exports in 2025–26 are projected at 218.71 million tonnes, up 1.5 million tonnes month-on-month and 8.53 million tonnes higher year-on-year. Export increases for Australia, Canada and Argentina outweighed reductions for Turkey and Ukraine.

US wheat export forecasts remained unchanged at 24.49 million tonnes, though market analysts expect potential upward revisions in coming months.

Market Outlook

Investment fund positioning remains a key factor to watch, with short positions in wheat futures still elevated despite some recent short-covering. Market participants expect wheat prices to stabilise near recent lows, with sideways movement likely into the first quarter of 2026 amid ample global supplies.