Coriander Prices Eye Recovery: From Oversupply to Cautious Optimism

The coriander market has recently witnessed notable volatility, with prices initially falling amidst increased arrivals but now showing tentative signs of recovery. Over the past few weeks, wholesale prices were pressured largely due to a surge in arrivals from India’s key coriander-producing states, particularly Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh. This influx coincided with only moderate demand from buyers, weighing on sentiment and softening prices at auctions and mandis. However, market participants now report that arrival rates have stabilized, beginning to relieve downward pressure. As the pace of new supplies eases, traders have observed partial price recovery, indicating that the recent correction was more technical in nature rather than marking a fundamental shift in supply-demand balance.

For producers and traders, Rajasthan’s crop outlook remains crucial. Weather conditions during the pivotal weeks of the crop cycle have introduced uncertainty regarding final yields, which in turn influences both bearish and bullish market expectations. Demand from local processors and spice exporters is steady but not yet strong enough to create a price rally; however, with export buyers remaining selective and prioritizing quality, a more robust price recovery could be on the horizon if procurement steps up. Market sentiment has gradually evolved from bearish to cautiously optimistic, and if arrivals continue to slow while buying interest increases, coriander prices look poised for a stronger upward move in the coming weeks.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery (FOB)	Purity/Type	Organic	Last Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Change	Market Sentiment
Coriander seeds	India	New Delhi	FOB	Whole	Yes	2.27	2.25	+0.02	Recovering
Coriander seeds	India	New Delhi	FOB	Single Parrot	No	1.10	1.08	+0.02	Recovering
Coriander seeds	India	New Delhi	FOB	99.9%	No	0.89	0.87	+0.02	Stabilizing
Coriander seeds	Egypt	Kairo	FOB	99.9%	No	1.05	1.05	0.00	Stable
Coriander seeds	India	New Delhi	FOB	Powder	Yes	2.62	2.60	+0.02	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Supply: High arrivals from Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh led to recent price softness. The inflow rate has now stabilized, with no further significant surge expected soon. Weather conditions in Rajasthan remain a key variable for yield outcomes and market sentiment.
• Demand: Domestic buying from spice processors and stockists is steady but not aggressive. Export demand remains stable—buyers are selective, prioritizing quality lots over large volumes.
• Sentiment: The recent downtrend is seen as a technical correction rather than structural weakness. With arrivals slowing, the outlook has improved, and cautious optimism is prevailing among traders and buyers.

📊 Fundamentals

• Production: The peak arrival season appears to be tapering off, especially in India’s Rajasthan. Weather during key crop stages is being closely watched for impact on yield and quality.
• Inventories: Stocks are being gradually drawn down as arrivals are absorbed by the market. No significant oversupply is reported for the remainder of the season, though near-term volatility remains a risk if arrivals spike unexpectedly.
• Speculation: With the recent correction seen as technical, speculative positioning is likely to adjust towards a neutral-to-slightly-bullish bias unless unexpected supply shocks occur.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Rajasthan (India): Key coriander state. Favorable weather during late crop growth, but recent uncertainties over rain patterns may reduce top yields. No severe weather threats imminent, but close monitoring recommended.
• Gujarat & Madhya Pradesh (India): Stable to favorable weather; no present concerns for coriander. Upcoming weeks remain critical for harvest and post-harvest operations.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• India remains the world’s largest producer and exporter of coriander. The current flush is predominantly Indian-origin. Egypt offers stable, premium supply—prices are steady, but volumes limited versus India.
• No major disruptions or surpluses reported among other global producers.

🗝️ Key Market Drivers

• Stabilization of new crop arrivals in India, particularly Rajasthan.
• Weather developments in major producing states.
• Steady but selective buying from domestic and export markets.
• Technical market correction offers potential for near-term price uptick.

⚖️ Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📈 Bullish bias as arrivals stabilize and buying could strengthen.
• 🛒 Stock accumulation may be prudent at current levels, especially for traders seeking medium-term appreciation.
• 📊 Monitor Rajasthan weather and post-harvest developments.
• 🔒 Quality lots should command a premium as buyers remain selective.
• ⚠️ Watch for any late-season arrival surges that could prolong volatility.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges/FOB)

Origin	Product	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg)	Trend
India (New Delhi)	Coriander Whole (Organic)	2.27	2.28 – 2.32	⬆️ Firm to higher
India (New Delhi)	Coriander Single Parrot	1.10	1.11 – 1.13	⬆️ Slightly higher
India (New Delhi)	Coriander 99.9%	0.89	0.89 – 0.91	➡️ Stable to firm
Egypt (Kairo)	Coriander 99.9%	1.05	1.05 – 1.06	➡️ Stable