Corn Ends Week Mixed – U.S. Weather Pressures Chicago, EU Crop Worries Lift Paris Prices

➡ Corn Ends Week Mixed – U.S. Weather Pressures Chicago, EU Crop Worries Lift Paris Prices

Corn futures in Chicago closed lower on Friday, weighed down by strong planting weather across the Corn Belt. In contrast, European contracts rose, supported by tightening EU yield prospects and a nearly completed French planting season.

---

Despite Friday’s slight gains in early U.S. trading, CBOT corn posted a weekly loss for July futures. Continued planting progress and fund-driven pressure dominated market sentiment. Euronext gained further, driven by regional weather risks and supply uncertainty.

---

📈 Market Situation & Price Development

🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (ct/bu)	Daily Change	Weekly Change
Jul 2025	443.50	−5.00	−6.75 ct (−1.4%)
Sep 2025	421.50	−3.50	–
Dec 2025	435.50	−3.25	–

➡ July contract remained under pressure, unable to break resistance despite strong export demand.

🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (EUR/t)	Daily Change	Weekly Change
Jun 2025	197.75	+0.75	+5.25 EUR (↑ 2.7%)
Aug 2025	198.50	0.00	–
Nov 2025	200.75	0.00	–

➡ Paris prices rose on tightening EU yield forecasts and near-completion of French planting.

---

🔍 Key Market Drivers

• 🌤 U.S. Weather Outlook:
  • More rain is expected next week across the Corn Belt
  • Planting may slow slightly in the east, but overall weather remains favourable
  • Soil moisture supports strong emergence
• 🇫🇷 France Planting Status (FranceAgriMer):
  • 90% of corn planted by May 12
  • 11 pp progress week-on-week
  • Conditions rated 88% good-to-excellent, down 3 pp from last week
• 🇪🇺 EU Crop Outlook (Strategie Grains):
  • EU corn harvest cut from 60.1 Mt → 59.9 Mt
  • Drought risk rising in parts of central & southern Europe
  • Euronext supported by tightening outlook
• 📉 CFTC Fund Positioning (May 13):
  • Funds moved from long to short
  • New net short: −84,976 contracts
  • Weekly net sell: −98,869 contracts
  • Indicates aggressive repositioning on bearish sentiment

---

☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)

Region	Trend	Market Impact
🇺🇸 Corn Belt	Wet in the east, mild west	Generally favourable for emergence
🇪🇺 EU	Dry in the south/east	Potential pressure on yields
🇧🇷 Brazil	Harvest pace steady	No major change expected

---

🌍 Corn Market Snapshot (Post-CFTC, Week 20)

Indicator	Value	Trend
CBOT Jul Contract (closing)	443.50 ct/bu	Weekly loss
Euronext Jun Delivery	197.75 EUR/t	Weekly gain
U.S. Planting Progress (May 12)	62% complete	+6 pp above avg
EU Harvest Outlook (Strategie G.)	59.9 Mt	Slight downgrade
CFTC Fund Position (May 13)	−84,976 contracts	Strongest net short since Nov 2023

---

💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment

• ⚠️ CBOT remains under pressure from weather and fund flows
• 🔼 Euronext supported by regional supply fears and technical levels
• 📦 Export demand steady, but sentiment overshadowed by U.S. fundamentals

Strategy:

• Favour long exposure in Euronext over CBOT short term
• Monitor CBOT July for support near 440 ct/bu
• Expect volatility into June as planting nears completion

---

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (May 20–22)

Market	Outlook	Comment
CBOT	🔽 Bearish bias	Fund pressure + good weather dominate
Euronext	🔼 Slightly bullish	EU supply risk offers short-term support
Dalian	🔁 Neutral	Domestic demand steady

---