Corn Follows Wheat Higher – Rain Slows U.S. Planting, Brazil Raises Crop Forecast

Corn Follows Wheat Higher – Rain Slows U.S. Planting, Brazil Raises Crop Forecast

➡ CBOT corn gained for the third consecutive session, supported by strength in wheat markets and concerns about planting delays in the U.S. Midwest. However, upward revisions in Brazil’s crop estimate raise fears of oversupply.

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📈 Price Overview

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🔍 Key Market Factors

• 🌧 U.S. Midwest Rainfall slows planting in some regions and raises acreage concerns

• 🌱 Rain supports emergence in early-planted fields, limiting further gains

• 🇧🇷 Agroconsult surprises market with an optimistic second crop forecast:

  • Safrinha corn: 112.9 Mt (vs. CONAB 99.8 Mt, USDA 130 Mt)

  • Total corn output: 140 Mt, up 10.5% YoY

  • Supported by good rainfall and increased area

• 🦠 Avian flu in Brazil may pressure domestic and export demand

• 🛢 EIA Weekly Ethanol Data (May 16):

  • Production: +43,000 bpd → 1.036 million bpd

  • Stocks: −501,000 bbl → 24.944 million bbl

  • Refinery input: −10,000 bpd → 919,000 bpd

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🛳 Export Outlook (USDA Report Expected Today):

• Old crop sales expected: 0.7–1.6 million tons

• New crop: 50,000–500,000 tons

• Any upside surprise could extend the current rally

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📊 Technical & Strategy Outlook

• 🟢 Old crop supported by export demand and fund short covering

• 🔴 New crop remains at risk due to large Brazilian supply

• 📈 Monitor technical resistance near 464 ct/bu (July CBOT)

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🔮 3-Day Forecast (May 22–24)