Corn Futures Rise – U.S. Planting Pace Mixed, Weather Adds Uncertainty

Corn Futures Rise – U.S. Planting Pace Mixed, Weather Adds Uncertainty

Corn futures climbed on Tuesday, supported by rising wheat prices and weather-related delays in key U.S. states. Traders are closely watching planting progress and rainfall in the Corn Belt.

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📊 Market Situation & Price Development

The July 2025 contract on the CBOT closed 7 ct higher at 454.50 ct/bu, while June corn on the Euronext rose €1.75 to €199.50/t.

Market	Contract	Price	Daily Change	Trend
CBOT	Jul 25	454.50 ct/bu	+7.00 (▲ 1.57%)	⬆️
Euronext	Jun 25	€199.50/t	+1.75	⬆️

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

• Planting Progress Meets Expectations – But Uneven
  According to the USDA’s Crop Progress Report, U.S. corn planting reached 78% as of Sunday, in line with expectations and ahead of the 5-year average (73%) and last year (67%).
  – Delays were noted in: Illinois (–3%), Kentucky (–11%), Ohio (–12%), Tennessee (–3%)
• Weather Outlook Raises Concerns
  Rain is forecast for the next 7 days across the Eastern Corn Belt, which could further delay planting in already late areas.
  This increases speculation that some farmers may claim crop insurance rather than plant late corn.
• Emergence Ahead of Average
  50% of planted corn has emerged, compared to a historical average of 40%, supporting early growth where planting is complete.
• Argentina Export Tax Hike Announced
  Argentina’s reduced 9.5% export tax will expire on June 30 and return to 12% starting July 1. This may incentivise short-term shipments and reduce competitiveness in Q3.
• Spillover from Wheat Strength
  Rising wheat prices have pulled corn higher as part of the broader grain complex.

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💼 Trading Strategy & Market Outlook

Corn shows near-term strength but remains weather-sensitive. Uncertainty about late planting and Argentine export flows could increase volatility.

Strategy:
– Bullish bias continues above 450 ct
– Monitor Eastern Corn Belt precipitation
– Exporters may benefit from short-term Argentine front-loading

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📈 3-Day Price Forecast (CBOT Jul 25)

Date	Expected Range (ct/bu)	Forecast
May 22	450–458	⬆️ Supported
May 23	448–455	➡️ Consolidation
May 24	447–460	➡️ Weather-driven

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🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Corn Belt (USA)

Region	Trend	Notes
Iowa/Nebraska	🌤️ Mostly dry	Planting nearly complete
Illinois	🌧️ Delays expected	May slow final planting progress
Ohio/Kentucky	🌧️ Wetter	Further setbacks are likely; some acres may be abandoned
Indiana	🌧️ Rainy	Emergence is likely to continue, planting lags

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