Corn Market Analysis June 2025: Trade Flows, Costs & Weather Shape Outlook

The global corn market is navigating a complex landscape in the first half of 2025, shaped by shifting trade flows, evolving transportation costs, and dynamic weather patterns. U.S. corn exports to Mexico, a crucial market, have declined by 8% year-over-year in Q1 2025, reflecting both softer demand and nuanced cost changes: land shipments have become marginally cheaper, while waterborne shipments are costlier due to rising production expenses. Despite these cost fluctuations, transportation remains a significant component—accounting for 14–27% of total production costs depending on route. This cost structure, alongside increased farm input prices, is influencing export competitiveness and trader sentiment.

On the supply side, the USDA projects a notable expansion in U.S. corn acreage, with planted area expected to reach 93.6–94 million acres and total production forecasted at around 390 million tons for 2025/26. Ukraine is also rebounding, with a 19% production increase expected, while Brazil and Argentina maintain strong output. However, global inventories remain tight, with the International Grains Council forecasting 2024/25 ending stocks at 275 million tons—22 million tons lower than last year. Meanwhile, speculative activity and fund positioning continue to add volatility, and the weather outlook is generally favorable for the U.S. Midwest and South America, supporting yield optimism but keeping markets on alert for any adverse shifts.

As the market digests these crosscurrents, corn prices on key exchanges have shown resilience, buoyed by robust global demand and ongoing logistical challenges. Traders should monitor USDA updates, weather developments, and export trends closely, as these will be decisive for short-term and seasonal price direction.

📈 Prices

Exchange	Contract/Location	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
CBOT	July 2025	0.185 USD/kg	+0.7%	Neutral to Slightly Bullish
Euronext	July 2025	0.219 USD/kg	+0.8%	Stable
Physical (UA, Odesa, FCA)	Yellow Feed Grade	0.25 USD/kg	0%	Steady
Physical (FR, Paris, FOB)	Yellow	0.27 USD/kg	0%	Steady
Physical (IN, New Delhi, FOB)	Starch, Organic	2.04 USD/kg	0%	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• U.S. planted acreage for corn is projected at 93.6–94 million acres for 2025/26, up ~3.3% YoY, with production near 390 million tons.
• Ukraine expects a 19% YoY production rebound to ~30 million tons due to improved weather.
• Brazil production is robust at 170 million tons; Argentina at 49 million tons; China is estimated at 300 million tons.
• Global ending stocks are forecast at 275 million tons, 22 million lower YoY, signaling tighter inventories despite higher production.
• U.S. exports to Mexico fell 8% YoY in Q1 2025, with total exports at 5.64 million tons; waterborne shipments costlier, land shipments slightly cheaper.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA projects average farm price at $3.90/bu (down from $4.10/bu last year), reflecting ample supply and stable demand.
• Speculative funds increased net-long positions, supporting price resilience.
• Ethanol demand is a key driver, but U.S. ethanol stockpiles have increased, capping price gains.
• Transportation costs now account for up to 27% of total corn production costs, with rising farm input prices affecting competitiveness.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• U.S. Midwest: Warm and dry, favorable for planting and early crop growth.
• Brazil & Argentina: Ideal growing conditions, supporting high yield potential.
• Ukraine: Enhanced soil moisture and seasonal rainfall underpin a strong recovery in output.

Overall, weather is supportive of yield prospects, but traders should remain vigilant for any abrupt shifts, especially during the critical pollination phase.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2025 Estimated Production (million tons)
United States	384.5
Brazil	170
Argentina	49
China	300 (est.)
Ukraine	30

Global ending stocks are forecast at 275 million tons, underscoring a tighter market than last year.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor USDA acreage and stocks reports for signals on supply expansion or contraction.
• Watch export trends to Mexico and the EU, as shifts in trade flows can impact U.S. price competitiveness.
• Be alert to changes in weather forecasts during the summer, as yield risks remain a key price driver.
• Consider hedging strategies if exposed to U.S. or Black Sea origins, given ongoing logistical and cost uncertainties.
• Speculators should track fund positioning and volatility, as market sentiment remains sensitive to macroeconomic and policy shifts.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Region	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Trend
CBOT (July 2025)	0.185 USD/kg	0.186–0.188 USD/kg	Stable to Slightly Up
Euronext (July 2025)	0.219 USD/kg	0.220–0.222 USD/kg	Stable
Physical (Odesa, UA)	0.25 USD/kg	0.25–0.26 USD/kg	Stable
Physical (Paris, FR)	0.27 USD/kg	0.27–0.28 USD/kg	Stable

Short-term price direction remains stable with a slight upward bias, supported by firm demand and positive weather signals. Any surprise in USDA or weather updates could quickly shift sentiment.