Corn Market Analysis: Old Crop Resilience vs. New Crop Pressure Amid Global Abundance

The global corn market faces a tug-of-war between robust old crop demand and mounting pressure on new crop prices due to abundant supply expectations. As of late May 2025, corn futures have softened, reflecting favourable production outlooks in the U.S. and Brazil. Despite this, U.S. export demand remains a bright spot: weekly shipments, though down 21% from the prior week, stand 24% higher year-on-year, with Japan, Mexico, and Colombia leading the buying.

The USDA’s latest crop progress shows rapid planting and emergence, but a lower-than-expected good/excellent crop rating has done little to offset bearish sentiment. Brazil’s crop estimate continues to climb, further tilting the balance toward oversupply. Meanwhile, European prices on Euronext have edged lower, mirroring global trends. The market’s attention now turns to weather in key growing regions and upcoming acreage reports, which could shift the outlook if adverse conditions emerge. For now, the prevailing theme is one of resilience in old crop contracts and caution for deferred months as global inventories swell.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Exchange	Contract	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
CBOT	Jul 25	459.5 ct/bu (USD)	0.00%	Neutral to Slightly Bearish
CBOT	Sep 25	433.75 ct/bu (USD)	-0.54%	Bearish
Euronext	Jun 25	€198.00/t	-2.00 EUR	Bearish
DCE (China)	Jul 25	2319 CNY/t	-0.17%	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• U.S. Export Demand: 1.396 Mt shipped last week (up 24% YoY); 46.98 Mt shipped since Sept 1, 2024 (+29% YoY).
• Key Buyers: Japan (374 kt), Mexico (297 kt), Colombia (200 kt).
• USDA Crop Progress: 87% planted (5-year avg: 85%), 67% emergence (avg: 60%), 68% rated good/excellent (vs. 73% expected).
• Brazil: Datagro raised the 2025 forecast to 132.7 Mt (USDA: 130 Mt).
• Europe: Euronext futures under pressure from global oversupply.

📊 Fundamentals & Key Data

• US Corn Exports (2024/25): 46.98 Mt, up 29% YoY.
• Brazilian Output: Upgraded to 132.7 Mt (Datagro), supportive of global stocks.
• Speculative Positioning: Net short positions in deferred contracts reflect a bearish supply outlook.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• US Midwest: Favourable weather continues, with above-average rainfall and mild temperatures aiding crop emergence. However, isolated storms in the Western Corn Belt could cause localised delays.
• Brazil: Harvest weather remains benign, supporting upward revisions to output.
• Europe: Temperatures and rainfall near seasonal norms; no major threats to crop development.

Potential Effects: Continued favourable weather will reinforce the bearish supply outlook unless unexpected dryness or storms emerge in June.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2024/25 Output (Mt)	Stock Change
USA	389.7*	Stocks building
Brazil	132.7	Stocks rising
China	288.8*	Stocks steady
EU	63.5*	Stocks stable

*Estimates based on the latest USDA and trade data

🧭 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term downside risk for new crop contracts (Sep–Dec) remains unless adverse weather develops.
• Monitor upcoming June USDA acreage and crop condition reports for potential market-moving surprises.
• Exporters: Consider locking in old crop sales on price strength; new crop sales should be hedged against further downside risk.
• Importers: Opportunities to secure forward coverage at favourable prices, particularly on deferred contracts.
• Speculators: Net short positioning advisable on deferred contracts, but stay alert for any weather-driven volatility.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Contract	Forecast Price Range	Sentiment
CBOT	Jul 25	458–463 ct/bu (USD)	Neutral
Euronext	Jun 25	€196–200/t	Bearish
DCE	Jul 25	2315–2330 CNY/t	Stable

Key Market Offers:

• Corn, yellow feed grade, UA, FCA Odesa: $0.25/kg
• Popcorn, expansion 40/42, AR, FOB Buenos Aires: $0.83/kg
• Corn, yellow, FR, FOB Paris: $0.27/kg