Corn Market Analysis: Rising Acreage, Strong Supply, and Softening Prices Ahead

The global corn market is currently navigating a complex landscape shaped by shifting acreage, robust supply prospects, and evolving demand patterns. In India, a significant acreage shift is underway, particularly in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, where farmers are pivoting towards corn due to its greater price stability and attractive returns compared to alternatives like soybean and peanuts. This trend is expected to drive a 15–20% increase in corn cultivation in Maharashtra alone, assuming timely and favorable monsoon rains.

Meanwhile, the arrival of a bumper crop in Bihar, projected at 150% above last year’s output, is set to flood the market in the coming weeks, potentially exerting downward pressure on prices. Despite high stock levels, especially in Jalgaon, Maharashtra, the release of these stocks could further temper any price rallies. Demand from the starch industry remains steady, but the ethanol sector is subdued, and the poultry sector continues to struggle with weak demand and delayed payments. Internationally, prices remain stable with only minor fluctuations, reflecting ample supply and cautious sentiment. As the new harvest approaches and weather remains a key variable, market participants should prepare for continued price softness in the near term, with potential volatility tied to monsoon developments and the pace of arrivals.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
UA	Yellow feed grade, 14.5% moisture	Odesa	FCA	0.25	0	Stable
AR	Popcorn, 40/42 expansion	Buenos Aires	FOB	0.83	0	Stable
FR	Yellow	Paris	FOB	0.27	0	Stable
IN	Starch (organic)	New Delhi	FOB	2.04	0	Stable
UA	Yellow	Odesa	FOB	0.22	0	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India – Maharashtra: Corn acreage to rise 15–20% as farmers shift from soybean; output currently low but stocks high.
• Bihar: New crop about to enter market, production projected at 150% of last year. Peak arrivals could reach 100,000–150,000 sacks/day, likely pushing prices lower.
• Uttar Pradesh: Acreage up as farmers opt for corn over peanuts; new arrivals expected in six weeks.
• Demand: Starch industry demand stable (Ahmedabad, Bavla: USD 27.90–28.50/quintal). Ethanol sector demand weak. Poultry sector under stress, with delayed payments and weak demand.
• International: Ample supply and stable prices across major origins (Ukraine, France, Argentina).

📊 Fundamentals

• Stocks: High stock levels in Maharashtra (Jalgaon) could be released if prices rise, capping any rallies.
• Speculative Positioning: Cautious sentiment prevails due to ample supply and muted demand from key sectors.
• Global Production: USDA projects global corn production steady, with large crops expected in the US, Brazil, and Ukraine.
• Inventories: Global stocks remain comfortable, with major exporters holding above-average inventories.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• India (Maharashtra, Bihar, UP): Monsoon onset is timely, with IMD forecasting normal to above-normal rainfall. This is likely to support the projected increase in corn acreage and yields, though excessive rainfall could pose localized flood risks.
• US Midwest: Weather remains favorable, with adequate soil moisture and mild temperatures supporting crop development.
• Ukraine & EU: Weather conditions stable; no major threats to crop development reported.

🌎 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Production (Mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt)	YoY Change
USA	383	53	+1.5%
Brazil	119	11	-2.5%
Ukraine	28	3.5	+3%
India	36	4.2	+4%
EU	62	6.8	+1.2%
China	288	207	+0.5%

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect continued price softness in India as Bihar’s bumper crop hits the market and arrivals surge.
• Monitor weather developments during the monsoon; excessive rain could disrupt yields but otherwise supports acreage gains.
• High stock levels in Maharashtra may cap any price rallies—watch for stock releases if prices rise.
• International prices likely to remain stable with ample supply and cautious demand.
• Short-term: Consider selling on rallies; buyers can wait for further price softening as new crop arrivals accelerate.
• Medium-term: Monitor demand recovery in the poultry and ethanol sectors for signs of price stabilization.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market/Exchange	Current Price (USD/quintal)	Forecast Range (USD/quintal)	Trend
Pune (India)	28.20–29.40	27.80–29.20	Softening
Tamil Nadu (India)	30.60	30.00–30.40	Softening
Ahmedabad/Bavla (India)	27.90–28.50	27.80–28.30	Stable/Softening
CBOT (US)	4.40 (USD/bushel)	4.35–4.50	Stable
Euronext (Paris)	190 (EUR/tonne)	188–192	Stable