Corn Market Outlook: Surplus Pressure, Low Prices, and What to Expect Into 2026

The global corn market is traversing a year shaped by strong harvests, oversized stocks, and competitive pricing across major exporters. According to the latest Credit Agricole report, the overall grain market is set against a backdrop of exceptional global supply predicted for the 2025/2026 season, with production outpacing consumption. This dynamic, led by record harvests in the United States, Ukraine, Argentina, and Mexico, has driven corn prices down to multi-year lows amid heavy carryover stocks in Europe and steady, affordable supply flows from major Black Sea and Latin American shippers. Despite this, analysts see some potential for price stabilization as falling margins could curb subsequent planting incentives. For market participants, surplus availability, high port queues, and rising transport costs also present tactical risks.

With the USDA projecting corn production to rise by more than 4%—alongside robust wheat, barley, and other cereal outlooks—market sentiment remains bearish but attentive to future weather risks and upcoming USDA data. Demand is expected to expand—though not as quickly as output—finally softening the crucial stocks-to-use ratio only slightly. In Poland and across Europe, domestic surpluses are considerable, with 12–14 million tonnes of unsold grain still in storage. Taken together, these trends suggest a persistently pressured market environment for corn, with prices likely to stabilize or gently rebound towards late 2026 as global production growth slows and consumption catches up.

📈 Prices

Exchange/Market	Product	Origin	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
CBOT*	Corn (Mar 2026)	US	Futures	0.16*	0.16*	0%	Bearish
Euronext*	Corn (March 2026)	EU	Futures	0.18*	0.18*	0%	Bearish
Physical	Corn (yellow)	FR	FOB Paris	0.18	0.19	-5.3%	Bearish
Physical	Corn	UA	FOB Odesa	0.17	0.18	-5.6%	Bearish
Physical	Corn, feed grade	UA	FCA Odesa	0.23	0.23	0%	Neutral
Physical	Corn, starch (organic)	IN	FOB New Delhi	1.60	1.63	-1.8%	Weak

*Estimated. For physical: 2025-12-12 close.

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Global production (2025/26): Up to 2413.6 mln t for all grains (+4.4%), corn alone +4.3%, driven by the US (+12.5%), Ukraine (+13.8%), Argentina (+6%), Mexico (+12.1%).
• Global consumption: 2390.7 mln t for grains (+2.4%), corn consumption +2.6%.
• Stocks-to-use ratio: Down to 24.5% (was 24.9%), still near multi-year lows, but slight overall inventory build (+0.4%).
• EU/Poland surplus: Polish grain surplus estimated at 12–14 mln t; high on-farm/warehouse stocks, reduced export pace.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: December 2025’s update signals even larger surpluses for corn; subdued trade, especially in Central & Eastern Europe.
• Acreage & Yield: Major acreage expansion in the US, Ukraine, Mexico; yields remain robust.
• Speculative Positioning: Funds net short in Chicago corn futures; little expectation of an upside breakout near-term.
• Logistics: Congestion at ports and rising trans-European transport costs remain a downside risk for cash grain sellers.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• North America: Near-normal temperatures, limited drought, overall favorable outlook for winter corn fields in the US Corn Belt.
• Black Sea (Ukraine, Russia): Wet weather has aided crop development; no major frost risk in short term.
• South America: Favourable rains returning, improving prospects especially in Argentina following dry spell.
• Europe: Adequate soil moisture, mild winter forecast favors overwintering crops. No immediate weather threats to next year’s crop.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Table

Country	2024/25 Corn Production (mln t)	2025/26 est. (mln t)	Change (%)
USA	382	430	+12.5
Ukraine	31.2	35.5	+13.8
Argentina	61.8	65.5	+6.0
Mexico	29.7	33.3	+12.1
EU (total)	64.1	75.6	+17.9* (grains overall)
Poland	7.5	7.9	+6**

*EU total for cereals; corn part of the mix.
**Estimate for total cereals.

📆 Trading Outlook & Analyst Recommendations

• Bearish trend persists as global supply remains ample and export competition intensifies.
• Monitor planting decisions and weather in the US, Ukraine, and South America for early signs of supply-side adjustments.
• Watch port/transport costs in Europe and Black Sea for short-term basis/margin shifts.
• Physical buyers should lock in forward positions for late 2025/early 2026 on dips.
• Producers: Hold grain wherever possible, or hedge with late-2026 contracts as prices expected to rebound moderately in 2026 on slower output growth.
• Speculators: Short side remains favored; cautious approach to turning bullish until sowing reductions materialize or weather threatens yields.

🗓️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast (EUR/kg)	Change (%)
CBOT (futures)*	0.16	0.16	0%
Euronext* (futures)	0.18	0.18	0%
Paris (Physical)	0.18	0.18	0%
Odesa (FOB)	0.17	0.17	0%

*Indicative values, stable near-term due to excess supply and muted trade activity.