🌽 Corn Market Outlook: USDA Projections & U.S. Export Shifts
The USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum 2025 has released its first official projections for U.S. corn acreage, production, and global trade expectations. The U.S. corn export landscape has significantly shifted in recent years, with China reducing imports while Mexico, Japan, and Colombia emerge as stronger buyers. Meanwhile, South American crop conditions remain a key factor, influencing global supply expectations. What’s next for the corn market? Read on for key insights! 🚀📊
🌾 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum 2025 – Key Takeaways
📌 U.S. Corn Acreage & Production Forecast 2025
- Planted acreage: Expected at 93.5 million acres (range: 92 to 95.1 million acres), marking an increase of ~2.9 million acres from 2024.
- Trend yield: Projected at 181 bushels/acre, assuming normal weather conditions.
- Total production: Estimated at ~15.4 billion bushels (~390 million tons), exceeding last year’s 14.9 billion bushels.
- Ending stocks: Expected to increase to 1.9 billion bushels, significantly higher than 2024/25 estimates (~1.54 billion bushels).
- Average farm price: Projected at $3.90/bu, slightly lower than last year’s $4.10/bu, due to higher supply and stable demand.
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📌 Global Trade & Market Dynamics
- U.S. Corn Exports: Expected to increase slightly in 2025/26, driven by larger domestic production.
- Brazil’s Rising Influence: Brazil overtook the U.S. as the world’s top corn exporter in 2023 and is expected to maintain a strong position in 2025.
- Ukraine’s Export Challenges: The ongoing conflict continues to disrupt Black Sea grain exports, impacting global trade flows.
- U.S. Ethanol Market: Ethanol production remains a key demand driver, but ethanol stockpiles have increased significantly, which may pressure corn prices.
📊 U.S. Corn Export Trends (2021–2024)
The global corn trade landscape has shifted significantly since 2021, with China drastically reducing imports, while Mexico, Japan, and Colombia have become stronger buyers.
| Year | Total Exports (Mio. t) | Export Value (Billion $) | Mexico (Billion $) | Japan (Billion $) | Colombia (Billion $) | South Korea (Billion $) | China (Billion $) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 61.5 | 19.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 5.9 |
| 2022 | 50.1 | 15.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 3.8 |
| 2023 | 44.3 | 13.1 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| 2024 (as of Nov.) | ~47.0 | 13.9 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 (-78% vs. 2021) |
📌 Key Takeaways
✔️ U.S. corn exports declined from 61.5 million tons (2021) to 44.3 million tons (2023), with slight recovery in 2024.
✔️ Mexico remains the largest buyer, steadily increasing imports.
✔️ Japan and Colombia continue to be stable markets.
✔️ China’s imports from the U.S. have plummeted by 78% since 2021, while other markets have partially compensated for this decline.
🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
🇦🇷 Argentina (Corn Belt)
📍 Current Conditions: Some relief from rain, but concerns remain.
📆 Next 14 Days:
- 🌧 Scattered rains continue, especially in central and southern regions.
- 🌡 Temperatures remain above average, particularly in the north.
🇧🇷 Brazil (Second Corn Crop Areas)
📍 Current Conditions: Planting delays due to wet weather in Mato Grosso.
📆 Next 14 Days:
- 🌧 Rain is expected to persist in northern & central regions, affecting soybean harvest & delaying second-crop corn planting.
- 🌤 Drier conditions in the south could allow planting progress.
📉 Global Corn Production & Stocks
| Season | Global Stocks (Mio. t) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 Mio. t |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 Mio. t |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 Mio. t |
🛑 Since the start of our reporting, global corn stocks have declined by a total of 25.5 million tons!
🌾 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison
| Country | 2022/23 (Mio. t) | 2023/24 (Mio. t) | 2024/25 Forecast (Mio. t) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 382 | 385 | 384 | -0.3% |
| 🇨🇳 China | 283 | 290 | 292 | +0.7% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 125 | 135 | 137 | +1.5% |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 51 | 49 | 46 | -6.1% |
📊 Summary: Brazil continues steady growth, while Argentina faces drought-related losses.
📉 CBoT Corn Futures (US-Cent/bu)
| Contract | Prev. Close | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | 478.25 | 478.25 | 481.25 | 477.50 | 479.50 | +1.25 | +0.26% |
| May 25 | 493.50 | 493.50 | 496.25 | 492.50 | 494.25 | +0.75 | +0.15% |
| Jul 25 | 498.50 | 498.50 | 501.25 | 497.50 | 499.25 | +0.75 | +0.15% |
📌 Summary & Key Takeaways
✅ USDA Outlook Forum’s acreage estimate is a key market driver this week.
✅ South American weather remains uncertain – rain in Argentina vs. wet delays in Brazil.
✅ Corn futures remain volatile as traders assess USDA data & global supply shifts.
✅ China’s reduced imports continue to reshape U.S. export flows.
📢 Stay tuned for further updates on global corn market developments! 🚀
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