Corn Market Update: Prices Find Support Amid Weather Volatility Globally

The global corn market is navigating a complex landscape as 2025 draws to a close, with mixed price signals across major exchanges and a heightened focus on supply risks driven by volatile weather in critical growing regions. Euronext futures have shown resilience, holding steady after prolonged declines, while CBOT contracts dipped slightly, reflecting both ample U.S. stocks and concerns about South American crop health. China’s Dalian prices edged up, signaling cautious optimism on domestic demand. Current spot offers for feed and food-grade corn reveal notable regional price spreads, particularly favorable for European and Black Sea buyers, even as logistics and trade flows remain strained by geopolitics. Weather outlooks for the Americas and the Black Sea region are now center stage, with dryness in Argentina raising worries over crop yields, and European rainfall patterns viewed as a key determinant for the spring planting season. Against this backdrop, global ending stocks are adequate but tightening, supporting a moderate bullish sentiment. Traders are closely monitoring USDA reports, speculative fund positions, and international trade policy shifts for new price direction. With short-term weather risk elevated, the coming weeks will be crucial for the market’s tone.

📈 Prices & Spreads: Euronext, CBOT, Dalian Overview

Exchange	Contract (Month/Year)	Last Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
Euronext (Mais)	Mar 26	188.25	0.00%	EUR/t	Neutral
Euronext (Mais)	Jun 26	190.25	-0.13%	EUR/t	Weak Bearish
CBOT	Mar 26	448.00	-0.44%	US-Cent/bu	Moderate Bearish
Dalian (DCE)	Mar 26	2238.00	+0.31%	CNY/t	Moderate Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• USDA Nov 2025 Report: U.S. ending stocks remain ample, but export pace is increasing. Global corn stocks are tightening marginally due to risks in Argentina and Ukraine.
• EU & Black Sea: EU production solid, Ukraine exports steady despite logistical hurdles.
• China: Domestic stocks ample, imports slow but steady; local market supported by recovering feed demand.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Crop Acreage: U.S. and Brazil planted area slightly below last year, but yield prospects still uncertain.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money slightly net short on CBOT; some short covering likely if weather risks escalate.
• Trade Flows: Ukrainian and French offers remain competitive, with FCA Odesa corn at EUR 0.23/kg and FOB Paris at EUR 0.2/kg.
• Policy: Ongoing trade restrictions in the Black Sea and potential export quota adjustments under discussion in South America.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact on Yields

• South America: Dry spells in central and northern Argentina threaten yield potential; Brazil’s second (safrinha) crop faces mixed rainfall forecasts for the coming two weeks.
• U.S. Midwest: Mild winter thus far, with some areas of soil moisture deficit persisting, although not yet critical for 2026 planting intentions.
• Europe/Black Sea: Sufficient late autumn rainfall in France and Ukraine supports favorable soil conditions; frost risk still minimal.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison (2025/26)

Country	2025/26 Production (M t)	2025/26 Ending Stocks (M t)
USA	386	56
Brazil	122	17
Argentina	50	2.6
EU	61	12
China	284	204
Ukraine	29	1.7

📝 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Watch South American weather closely—deterioration in Argentina could trigger a price rebound.
• Physical buyers: Consider spot opportunities in Odesa (EUR 0.23/kg) and Paris (EUR 0.2/kg) for nearby delivery.
• Importers: Lock in forward contracts given recent price stability; downside risk increases only if weather turns positive in all major regions.
• Speculators: Further downside on CBOT is limited unless U.S. export pace disappoints or South American weather abruptly improves.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange	Contract	Forecast Range	Sentiment
Euronext	Mar 26	187–190 EUR/t	Stable/Upward bias
CBOT	Mar 26	447–452 US-Cent/bu	Stable/Neutral
Dalian	Mar 26	2230–2250 CNY/t	Upward