Corn Rally Continues – South American Weather and Ethanol Data in Focus
Corn futures at the CBoT continued their rally but failed to hold all of Tuesday’s gains. The March 2025 contract initially surged to an eight-month high at 497.00 cents per bushel (188.21 EUR/t) but closed slightly lower at 495.00 ct/bu (-2.00 ct). Since early December, corn has gained more than 15%.
At the Euronext, trading was calmer. The March 2025 contract rose by 1.25 EUR to 216 EUR/t. After a summer decline, corn futures in Paris recovered better in the fall but have mostly moved sideways in recent weeks.
South American Weather Developments
- Brazil: Rainfall in central Brazil continues to increase this week, delaying the soybean harvest and the planting of the second corn crop (Safrinha). This could lead to soybean quality concerns and logistical challenges.
- Argentina: In the southern regions, only scattered rainfall is expected, and in Rio Grande do Sul, conditions remain drier than usual, potentially affecting corn planting.
U.S. Ethanol Production Declines
- According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. ethanol production fell sharply last week by 84,000 barrels per day, down to 1.015 million barrels per day.
- Inventories declined slightly by 152,000 barrels, but at 25.722 million barrels, they remain at historically high levels. The decline is attributed to high stock levels and weak producer margins.
CBoT Closing Prices – January 30, 2025
| Contract | Closing Price (ct/bu) | Change | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 25 | 495.00 | -2.00 | -0.40 % |
| May 25 | 505.75 | -1.75 | -0.34 % |
| July 25 | 507.50 | -1.50 | -0.29 % |
| September 25 | 468.00 | -2.00 | -0.43 % |
| December 25 | 465.75 | -1.00 | -0.21 % |
Euronext Closing Prices – January 30, 2025
| Contract | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 25 | 216.00 | +1.25 | +0.58 % |
| June 25 | 220.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 % |
| August 25 | 225.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 % |
| November 25 | 217.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 % |
Market Outlook
The corn market remains bullish, as traders continue to monitor weather concerns in South America, weaker ethanol production, and strong export demand. If soybean harvest delays in Brazil persist, the Safrinha corn planting could face additional pressure, further tightening global supplies.
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