Crude Oil Market Update – Brent Prices Edge Higher After Weekly Volatility
Crude oil futures (Brent) recovered slightly on Friday, with the July contract closing at USD 64.78 per barrel, up 0.52% on the day. However, prices remain under pressure due to macroeconomic uncertainties and inventory concerns.
📊 ICE Brent Crude Futures – Closing Summary (23 May 2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/bl) | Change (%) | Weekly Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25 | 64.78 | +0.52% | Slightly higher |
| Aug 25 | 64.21 | +0.45% | Volatile |
| Sep 25 | 63.67 | +0.38% | Mixed |
| Dec 25 | 63.15 | +0.33% | Slight rebound |
🌍 Global Energy Market Overview
- 📉 Earlier in the week, crude prices dropped to multi-week lows on rising U.S. crude inventories and continued concerns over slowing global growth.
- 🇨🇳 China’s oil demand showed signs of recovery, offering some support.
- 📦 The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a larger-than-expected stock build.
- 🛢️ OPEC+ output compliance remains a wildcard — potential policy updates expected in early June.
🔍 Key Fundamentals
- ⛽ Gasoline demand in the U.S. improved slightly heading into Memorial Day weekend.
- 🛢️ WTI and Brent spreads narrowed, hinting at rebalancing between regional markets.
- 🌀 No major disruptions from weather events have been reported — hurricane season begins in June.
📈 Technical Outlook
- Support at USD 63.00, resistance at USD 65.50.
- RSI suggests neutral territory after last week’s sell-off.
- Market participants are waiting for the next round of inflation data and Fed signals.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Brent, July 25)
| Date | USD/bl Range | EUR/bl Range (est.) |
|---|---|---|
| May 27 | 64.20 – 65.00 | 59.40 – 60.25 |
| May 28 | 63.80 – 65.30 | 59.00 – 60.50 |
| May 29 | 63.50 – 65.20 | 58.70 – 60.40 |
📌 Exchange rate used: 1 USD = 0.925 EUR
🧭 Conclusion & Outlook
🟡 Brent crude shows short-term resilience but lacks strong upward momentum.
⚠️ Rising inventories and demand uncertainty remain key risks.
📅 Next market-moving events: OPEC+ meeting in June, U.S. inventory reports, and macroeconomic data.
