Cumin Market Holds Steady Amid Increased Unjha Arrivals and Cautious Demand

The global cumin market is navigating a period of cautious stability as increased arrivals in India’s key Unjha mandi and subdued demand keep prices largely unchanged. Over the past week, jeera (cumin) traded around $265 per 100 kg, with daily fluctuations reflecting inconsistent supply and cautious market sentiment. While bulk buyers have remained on the sidelines and spot activity muted, prices hovered between $265 and $266.50, illustrating a tight, hesitant market. Several factors explain this steady-to-weak undertone: higher arrivals (with an incremental 5,000–6,000 bags recently), ongoing uncertainty over the upcoming Indian crop, and the unpredictability of farmer selling patterns. Meanwhile, global trading hubs, especially in India and Egypt, are watching weather developments closely, as any shift in rainfall or temperature could disturb this delicate balance. Looking ahead, volatility is likely to persist—prompted by supply risks and guarded buying interest. Market participants should stay alert for shifts in demand and farm-level cues, as short-term movements might present strategic opportunities for both buyers and sellers.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Type/Purity	Organic	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (€/kg)	Previous Price (€/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Cumin seeds	IN	New Delhi	Whole, Grade – A	Yes	FOB	4.90	4.95	-0.05	Neutral
Cumin seeds	IN	New Delhi	Grade – A, 99%	No	FOB	2.23	2.21	+0.02	Moderately bullish
Cumin seeds	EG	Kairo	99.9%	No	FOB	4.62	4.60	+0.02	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India: Largest global producer. Unjha mandi arrivals rose by 5,000–6,000 bags, but trading stayed limited as both farmers and buyers await clearer signals regarding new crop prospects.
• Egypt: A key exporter; current price trends reflect stability with buyers monitoring Indian developments closely.
• Demand: Bulk buying remains subdued. Retail/offtake moderate. International demand steady, with minor strength from the Middle East and Europe.

📊 Fundamentals

• Crop progress: Uncertainty around the new Indian crop due to weather and farmer intentions.
• Inventories: Ample stocks at Indian mandis, but some off-market stocks are likely, adding to unpredictability.
• Speculative Positioning: Traders staying cautious, with limited fresh buying or selling reported.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Gujarat & Rajasthan (India): Forecasts indicate dry, cool conditions over the next week. No major rainfall events expected, which should allow steady crop development, though moisture stress could reduce yields if dryness persists towards late crop stages.
• Egypt: No adverse weather reports; season progressing normally.

Potential Effect: If Indian dryness continues beyond the short term, yield losses could tighten supply and push prices upward. For now, the risk is moderate but should be closely watched by market participants.

🌐 Production & Global Stocks

Country	Est. 2024 Production (t)	Stocks (t)	Status
India	~550,000	Moderate	Harvest underway/trade cautious
Egypt	~45,000	Stable	Steady exports
Syria	~12,000	Low	Unchanged

🔍 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Continue to monitor Indian crop development and Unjha mandi arrivals for abrupt supply shifts.
• Short-term price volatility likely; buying on dips favored for processors and exporters.
• Bullish breakout possible if Indian weather turns drier; cover near-term requirements where possible.
• International buyers should secure contracts with delivery flexibility due to unpredictable export flow from India.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Markets)

Location	Product	Price Range (€/kg)	Outlook
Unjha (IN)	Cumin seeds, Grade A	2.21 – 2.26	Stable, mild upward bias if arrivals slow
New Delhi (IN)	Cumin seeds, Organic	4.88 – 4.92	Steady
Kairo (EG)	Cumin seeds, 99.9%	4.60 – 4.65	Stable

Market players should remain vigilant; risks remain tilted to the upside if Indian supplies falter or weather conditions shift unexpectedly. Spot buying opportunities may arise if current market lethargy persists but could reverse quickly on stronger demand or export inquiries.