Strong Buying by Stockists Drives Prices Up
Despite the arrival of a new cumin crop in China, prices have surged due to strong buying by stockists. The latest market data shows that cumin prices have risen, reaching $3,78 to $3,90 per kg for normal and machine-cleaned cumin respectively.
Trade sources attribute this price rise to lower arrivals in Unjha and anticipated monsoon season consumption. Dixit Patel, a trader from Unjha Mandi, noted that only 10-12 thousand bags of cumin arrived in the market, pushing prices up. This situation has created concern among traders, especially given earlier reports suggesting a significant increase in cumin production in China.
Uncertainty Over Chinese Production
Reports had initially indicated that cumin production in China could nearly double this season. This led to expectations of a price drop, which has not materialized. Traders like Mr. Patel are now uncertain whether these production figures are reliable or merely rumors spread to manipulate the market.
China, after India, is a major global producer of cumin. Jatin Patel, another trader from Unjha, mentioned that discussions in the market suggest China’s cumin production could increase to 0.55 to 0.60 million tonnes from last season’s 0.28 – 0.30 million tonnes. Similar increases are expected in Türkiye, Syria, and Afghanistan, potentially producing 50,000 – 60,000 tonnes and 18,000 – 20,000 tonnes respectively.
High Domestic Prices Affecting Cumin Exports
Despite the potential increase in global cumin production, India’s high domestic prices have impacted exports. According to the Spices Board, India exported 136,526 tonnes of cumin worth $694.50 million in the financial year 2023-24, up from 186,509 tonnes worth $502.52 million the previous year.
However, the uncertainty around China’s production figures continues to create sharp price fluctuations in the domestic market. Traders are advised to proceed with caution until a clearer picture of the global cumin production emerges.
The cumin market is experiencing unexpected price surges despite reports of increased production in China and other countries. This has led to significant concern among traders, impacting both domestic prices and export dynamics. Until clearer information on production levels is available, the market is expected to remain volatile.