Cumin Prices Under Pressure as Indian Crop Arrivals Accelerate: Is a Rebound Possible?

Amidst a crucial period for the global cumin trade, fresh arrivals in Gujarat are shaping a distinctly bearish environment for prices. Recent weeks have seen a marked increase in the inflow of new-season cumin into India’s key mandis, particularly in Gujarat where daily arrivals now average between 9,000 and 10,000 bags. Despite a reported 14.46% drop in sowing area this season, robust crop conditions and effective harvesting practices have compensated, ensuring supplies remain ample. Prices in Unjha—a major cumin hub—have already slipped by USD 4–5 per 20 kg and now hover near USD 54–55 per 20 kg . Local traders and stockists are adopting a cautious stance, and both inter-state and export demand remain steady but far from aggressive. Additionally, importing countries like Bangladesh are less active this season, further contributing to a softer market tone.

📈 Prices: Latest Market Overview

Product	Origin	Grade & Purity	Location	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Change (Weekly)	Sentiment
Cumin seeds (organic)	India	Whole, Grade-A	New Delhi	4.60	0.00	Stable
Cumin seeds	India	Grade-A, 99% purity	New Delhi	2.32	+0.02	Soft
Cumin seeds	India	Grade-A, 98% purity	Unjha & New Delhi	2.21	+0.02	Soft
Cumin seeds	Egypt	Black, Grade-A	Cairo	2.03	+0.03	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Arrivals surge: Daily new arrivals in Gujarat mandis (9,000–10,000 bags) firmly weigh on prices despite only moderate farmer selling so far.
• Reduced sowing, ample output: Sowing down 14.46% (407,600 ha), but good weather and effective harvesting sustain strong arrivals.
• Subdued demand: Local stockists cautious, inter-state and export demand moderate, with Bangladesh notably less active.
• Global competition: Turkey, Syria, Afghanistan, Iran, and especially China (1.6 million tonnes output) intensifying export market competition. Ongoing geopolitical strife in Syria could restrict its output.
• Exports down YoY: India exported 142,217 tonnes (USD 395m) in first nine months of FY25-26, vs. 159,201 tonnes (USD 525m) last year. Lower global prices and weaker demand drive the decline.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Sentiment

• Price softness likely to persist due to surging arrivals and lackluster buying.
• Farmers hold stocks: Not yet selling aggressively, but rapid arrivals could prompt further declines if pressures build.
• International buyers: Exporters face stiffer competition—and unless demand picks up or arrivals slow, prices may not rebound soon.

🌤️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Current Gujarat outlook: Favorable weather and smooth harvesting supporting large, timely arrivals despite smaller planted area.
• Weather risk limited for near-term arrivals; however, watch for unexpected rainfall, which could impact later phases.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2025E Output (Tonnes)	Market Position
India	~800,000	World’s dominant producer/exporter
China	~1,600,000	Key exporter, intense competition
Turkey	Significant	Competes in EU/MENA
Iran, Afghanistan	Moderate	Regional, some exports
Syria	Uncertain	Possible decline due to conflict

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🔻 Short-term bias remains bearish.
• 👀 Monitor daily mandi arrivals: Continued surge will likely push prices lower.
• 🌐 Track export trends: Any uptick in export inquiries or reduction in arrivals could offer support to prices.
• ⚠️ Avoid aggressive long positions until arrivals moderate or export demand significantly improves.
• 💼 Exporters should hedge against further price falls.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges / Mandis)

Exchange/Mandi	Current Price (USD/20kg)	Sentiment	3-Day Forecast
Unjha (India)	54–55	Bearish	Potential drop of 1–2 USD amid strong arrivals
FOB India (EUR/kg)	2.21–4.60	Soft	Prices likely to soften further
FOB Egypt (EUR/kg)	2.03–4.50	Stable	Stable, minor downside possible