Analysts of Refinitiv Commodities Research have adjusted estimates of gross harvest of cereals and oilseeds in the EU countries in the season-2023/24 against the background of drought in a number of producing regions.
Thus, the forecast of soft wheat harvest in the EU is reduced by 2.3 million tons, and hard wheat by 0.5 million tons – to 128 million tons and 7.6 million tons respectively. The corn harvest is expected to be 64.1 million tons (-0.8 million tons to the previous estimate) and rapeseed 19.6 million tons (-0.6 million tons).
“Experts attribute the downward adjustments to unfavorable weather conditions. In particular, hot and dry conditions in Poland, Romania, Hungary and southern parts of France have a negative impact on the development of crops, which are now moving into the flowering and pollination stage,” industry experts explain. – “Despite this, the expected yield of major crops is still above the results of MY 2022/23“.
In addition, predominantly hot, dry weather is forecast to persist across Europe in August. “Nevertheless, the mentioned weather conditions may be beneficial for summer crops after grain filling,” the experts added.