In April, Ukraine already exported 46,000 tons of sunflower, the main buyers of which were Romania and Bulgaria
It should be noted that there are not many stocks of sunflower seeds left in Ukraine. This oilseed may be in short supply in May-June. However, this may not cause an increase in the price of oil, since the prices of both soybean and palm oil are falling on world markets.
Another factor influencing the market is Russian attacks on the energy sector
Most processing plants in Ukraine operate on electricity. Almost all processors have diesel generators, but switching to them is impractical given the rising cost of production. If Russian shelling of energy facilities continues, some factories may stop due to lack of electricity. In a critical situation, the state will provide electricity to the population, not to business.
Currently, the gross margin in processing generates either zero or a very small profit: about $10-15 per ton. Obviously, there are more factors in the market in favour of a further decline in sunflower seeds prices. The peak price of oil crops was passed back in January, if we take into account the exchange rate. Purchasing prices for sunflower seeds may fall to 15 000-15 500 UAH/t or 356-367 €/t. Although this week factories are still offering prices at the level of 16 000 -16 400 UAH/t or 379-389 €/t. It is important to monitor oil prices: as soon as they decrease, sunflower seed prices will also start to reduce.