The Fenugreek market has shown notable resilience this week, maintaining stable price levels despite an uptick in arrivals from major producing regions. Traders and analysts observed that after a minor rally earlier in the week—triggered by tighter supplies in Rajasthan—the market has reverted to calm, with current prices at USD 74.39 per quintal unchanged from previous records. This stability reflects improving crop conditions and a consistent, yet non-aggressive, pace of arrivals. Notably, even as increased supply might typically pressure prices, robust baseline demand has prevented any significant downturn, and speculative buying subsided as harvest and logistics bottlenecks eased.
As the sowing season progresses and with generally favorable weather forecasts for key growing zones in India, both exporters and local processors are adopting a wait-and-see stance, expecting little upside pressure in the immediate future. Market participants should watch for potential changes in weather patterns or export demand dynamics that could tilt the balance.
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📈 Prices
| Origin | Type/Purity | Organic | Market | Latest Price (EUR/kg FOB) |
Previous Price (EUR/kg) |
Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India (New Delhi) | Seeds | Yes | FOB | 1.18 | 1.20 | -0.02 | Neutral to Slightly Bearish |
| India (New Delhi) | Seeds, 99% | No | FOB | 0.74 | 0.76 | -0.02 | Stable |
| Egypt (Kairo) | Seeds | No | FOB | 0.95 | 0.93 | +0.02 | Firming |
| India (New Delhi) | Powder | Yes | FOB | 1.35 | 1.37 | -0.02 | Stable |
| India (New Delhi) | FAQ, Machine Clean | No | FOB | 0.70 | 0.72 | -0.02 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Market Arrivals: Key Indian states (notably Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh) saw increased arrivals, putting a lid on recent price gains.
- Global Demand: Continues moderate with little change in pulse-based exports to Middle East and Europe.
- Inventory Levels: Steady with no signs of undue buildup among traders.
- Speculative Positioning: Eased after last week’s mini-rally, limited expectation for sharp price swings.
📊 Fundamentals
- USDA/Indian Government Reports: No significant revisions to output forecasts; crop conditions in main belt gradually recovering.
- Export Trends: India remains the world’s primary exporter, with Egypt gaining ground in the EU market.
- Import Demand: Consistent in key markets but not robust enough to spur further rallies.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- Rajasthan & MP: Recent monsoon patterns have delivered ample but not excessive rainfall, supporting crop growth without increasing fungal disease risk.
- Short-term Forecast: Dry and sunny conditions expected for the next 3 days, encouraging robust late-stage crop development and further arrivals into the market.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2023/24 Prod. (kt) | 2023/24 Stocks (kt) | Y-o-Y Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 155 | 42 | Stable |
| Egypt | 21 | 6 | Up |
| Turkey | 7 | 2 | Stable |
| Other | 9 | 3 | Flat |
📌 Trading Outlook & Insights
- Prices likely to remain steady with limited upside as arrivals increase further.
- End-users may continue spot buying strategy; minimal advantage seen for forward bookings at current prices.
- Exporters to focus on niche demand—especially in organic segments where premiums hold despite broad stability.
- Monitor for any sudden adverse weather events, as delayed rains could still impact quality and last-mile arrivals.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (INR & EUR, FOB New Delhi)
| Date | INR/quintal | EUR/kg | Expected Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 6,200 | 0.74–1.18 | Stable |
| Day 2 | 6,200 | 0.74–1.18 | Stable |
| Day 3 | 6,200 | 0.74–1.18 | Stable |