Figs Market Outlook: Holiday Lull, Quality Gains, but Price Volatility Ahead

The global dried fig market is entering a period of reflection and adjustment. In Turkey, the world’s dominant supplier, the New Year and Christmas holidays have led to a pronounced slowdown in exports—a seasonality mirrored across many dried fruit sectors. This year, the dried fig sector stands out for its notable price strength compared to other dried fruits. Farmers have taken significant steps to address contamination concerns (notably aflatoxin and ochratoxin residues), resulting in an improvement in product quality and a modest rebound in exports. While last year’s negative events are largely behind the sector, volatility remains high. Exporters are cautious and refraining from providing firm prices, awaiting fresh demand signals in the early months of the new year. Although growers express frustration with the absence of sharper price increases, current profitability appears favorable when compared to other crops. Pricing for Turkish dried figs is steady at present, but the market remains highly sensitive to fluctuations in demand and foreign exchange moves, and market players are preparing for renewed price action as global buyers re-enter the market in January. Expect continued uncertainty, but also cautious optimism as the sector enters 2025 with better fundamentals and a cleaner product slate.

📈 Prices

Type	Grade	Location	Last Price (EUR/kg, FOB)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Dried Figs	No: 7, Lerida	Malatya, TR	7.7	0%	Stable
Dried Figs	No: 6, Natural	Malatya, TR	7.9	0%	Stable
Dried Figs	No: 5, Natural	Malatya, TR	8.0	0%	Stable
Dried Figs	No: 4, Natural	Malatya, TR	8.2	0%	Stable
Dried Figs	No: 3, Natural	Malatya, TR	8.7	0%	Stable
Dried Figs	No: 2, Natural	Malatya, TR	9.2	0%	Stable
Dried Figs	No: 1, Natural	Malatya, TR	9.7	0%	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Export activity: Strong pre-holiday demand tapers off as many global buyers have paused for the year-end holidays.
• Supply quality: Proactive farmer measures (against aflatoxin, ochratoxin) have improved the proportion of exportable-quality figs in 2024/25.
• Farmer sentiment: Despite protests over insufficient price increases, returns are positive versus alternative crops.
• Exporters’ pricing stance: Volatility and thin spot demand mean exporters are often unable or unwilling to provide firm offers until post-holiday demand clarity emerges.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Stock carryover: A modest increase in exports has slightly reduced remaining stocks versus last year (vector analysis confirms improvement compared to previous report).
• Competitive position: Dried figs outperform other dried fruits for price resilience in the current marketing year.
• Macro factors: Turkish lira volatility may impact returns for exporters (and pricing for importers) early in 2025.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Western Anatolia (Turkey): Current weather is stable with near-average temperatures and slightly below-average precipitation. No acute risks to fig orchards for the remainder of the dormant period. Early spring will be more critical for bloom and pollination success.
• Forecast: Next 7-10 days show no major threats; continued monitoring is recommended at winter’s end.

🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production Estimate (kt)	Estimated Exports (kt)	Stock Year-on-Year Change
Turkey	280	250	-5%
Iran	80	50	0%
USA (California)	30	22	+2%
Spain	16	14	0%

📌 Market Drivers

• Diminished export activity due to holidays
• Residue compliance boosts quality and exportability
• Relatively stable prices due to low stocks and steady overseas demand (once holidays pass)
• Competitive outlook compared to raisins, apricots, and other dried fruits
• Watch for Turkish lira movements

🔎 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect low liquidity through late December—patience advised for large buyers
• Monitor Turkish economic news and currency trends for hedging opportunities
• Consider forward contracting for early 2025 procurement if demand signals rebound sharply in January
• Stay vigilant for any residue or phytosanitary alerts from destination markets
• Producers: Hold remaining supply for likely price rebound post-holidays

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Malatya FOB, EUR/kg)

Date	Low	High	Expected Trend
2025-12-18	7.7	9.7	Stable
2025-12-19	7.7	9.7	Stable
2025-12-20	7.6	9.7	Slight downward bias if spot demand remains soft