The Indian onion market is currently experiencing a transformative phase as the fresh Kharif harvest enters major mandis. This influx of new crop arrivals is gradually resetting the balance between supply and demand, bringing relief after a period of tight availability and fluctuating rates. Last year at this time, onions were trading at approximately USD 36 per quintal, but have this year edged higher to around USD 40 per quintal—a signal of strong market undercurrents largely stemming from the recovering supply. Both farmers and traders show differing sentiments: while growers are optimistic about stable incomes due to steady arrivals, traders maintain cautious optimism, wary that surplus influxes might cap further price appreciation.
Government intervention—via the release of stored onions—has added another cushion, reducing the odds of sharp market swings. The near-term outlook remains calm: unless disrupted by adverse weather or unforeseen logistical snags, industry analysts expect prices to hover around present levels. For export and processing-grade onions, Europe and India present attractive pricing, further bolstered by relatively stable trading terms. As the monsoon’s retreat and transition to the rabi season becomes the weather factor to watch, onion growers and buyers alike are focused on regional rainfall and storage updates for their next moves.
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Onions fried
crispy freid onions
FCA 3.42 €/kg
(from PL)
Onion powder
grade - B
FOB 1.29 €/kg
(from IN)
Onion powder
white
FOB 1.56 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (EUR) | Previous Price (EUR) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fried Onions | Crispy fried | PL | Lodz | FCA | 3.42 | 3.42 | 0% | Stable |
| Onion Powder | Grade-B | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.29 | 1.30 | -0.8% | Slightly Bearish |
| Onion Powder | White | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.56 | 1.57 | -0.6% | Slightly Bearish |
| Onion Powder | Organic | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 2.64 | 2.65 | -0.4% | Stable |
| Onion (Fresh) | Fresh | EG | Kairo | FOB | 0.78 | 0.79 | -1.3% | Bearish |
| Onion (Flakes) | Organic | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 5.11 | 5.13 | -0.4% | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- The arrival of fresh Kharif onions is increasing across key Indian states, with farmers bringing new harvests to market yards and supporting a softening in price volatility.
- Year-over-year prices are up ca. 11%, from USD 36 to USD 40 per quintal, primarily reflecting stronger early season demand and a lagged effect from earlier supply tightness.
- Government market interventions (release of buffer stocks) are acting as a stabilizing force.
- Export demand to Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian markets remains moderate; European dried/powdered onion imports are steady.
- Localised gluts due to concentrated arrivals could cause short-term regional price dips.
📊 Fundamentals
- Inventory: Stored onions from the previous season continue to supplement arrivals, reducing spot shortages.
- Speculation: Market players are cautiously long, but wary of accelerated arrivals muting potential upside.
- Policy: No export restrictions currently announced; monitoring for any shifts as government keeps consumer prices in focus.
- Comparison to Last Report: Price levels remain firmer than previous year’s low (ca. 11% up), but volatility is lower thanks to buffer stock measures and the onset of new crop.
☀️ Weather Outlook & Regional Production Impact
- India: Current IMD reports suggest largely normal rainfall across key onion-producing belts (Maharashtra, Gujarat, MP). Minimal risk of significant crop damage in the immediate short term, supporting steady arrivals.
- Egypt: No major weather disruptions—good harvest conditions bolster fresh export supply.
- Forecast: Stable weather in the next 7 days will support consistency in both volumes and quality; late rains or early frost in northern India would be only minor risks to monitor.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Snapshot
| Country | Latest Production (est. ‘000 t) | Major Export Type | Stock Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 23,000 | Fresh/Dried/Powder | Steady/Increasing |
| China | 22,000 | Fresh/Powder | Stable |
| Egypt | 2,700 | Fresh | Rising |
| EU | 7,000 | Fresh | Stable |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Buyers: Favor spot procurement for fresh and processed onions as prices stabilize and downside is limited; monitor for any sudden adverse weather updates that might spike rates.
- Exporters: Consider locking in forward contracts, especially for dried and powdered onion varieties, as global demand remains consistent and freight rates are stable.
- Traders: Maintain light long positions; close watch on Kharif arrivals is warranted to guard against local over-supply dips.
- Farmers: Bring in staggered arrivals to maintain the favorable price environment and avoid creating a supply-driven price slump.
⏩ 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Regions/Exchanges)
| Region/Exchange | Product | 3-Day Forecast Range (EUR) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| India (FOB, New Delhi) | Onion Powder | 1.28 – 1.31 | Stable to slight bearish |
| Egypt (FOB, Kairo) | Fresh Onion | 0.77 – 0.80 | Stable |
| Poland (FCA, Lodz) | Fried Onions | 3.40 – 3.44 | Stable |
