The global garlic market has settled into a phase of cautious stability after periods of pronounced price volatility. Market sentiment reflects a delicate balance between steady arrivals and slowing demand, particularly from cold storage operators whose muted purchasing has capped any potential upward price movement. This equilibrium comes as farmers tactically reduce market supply, reinforcing price stability. High-quality garlic and a smooth harvest season have ensured that supply remains consistent despite evolving market dynamics. Yet, with demand from major Stuckists subdued and storage activity lacking vigor, the price outlook faces gentle headwinds.
Looking forward, traders highlight that the next price wave will depend on both the timing and strength of renewed buying from storage operators as well as the continued regularity of fresh arrivals. In key Indian markets such as Rajkot, Gondal, and Jamnagar, price ranges remain firm, bolstered by quality produce and disciplined supply. However, all eyes are on demand recovery and potential weather disruptions in major garlic-growing clusters that could influence supply and price trajectories during the coming weeks.
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📈 Prices: Current Market Overview
| Market/Origin | Product Type | Arrivals | Price Range (USD/ton) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajkot (IN) | Fresh | 500 sacks/day | 1,980 – 2,220 | Stable |
| Rajkot (IN) | Super Quality | Included above | 2,100 – 2,250 | Stable |
| Gondal Yard (IN) | Fresh | 1,800 sacks/day | 2,220 – 2,250 | Stable |
| Jamnagar (IN) | Fresh | 450 sacks/day | 2,220 – 2,244 | Stable |
| Madhya Pradesh (IN) | Fresh | 20 trucks/day | 1,200 – 1,620 | Stable |
| Location | Product | Type | Organic | FOB Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (IN) | Garlic | Powder | Yes | 6.60 | 6.63 | 2025-09-26 |
| Kairo (EG) | Garlic | Fresh | No | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2025-09-26 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Snapshot
- Arrivals: Remain steady in key Indian mandis, but farmers are easing supplies to maintain prices.
- Demand: Cold storage purchases are weak, with minimal buying for storage, putting a cap on upward price movement.
- Market Balance: Supported by reduced supply and steady, albeit limited, demand.
📊 Fundamentals & Trade Drivers
- Good harvest quality and smooth crop progression underpin robust supply.
- Low speculative buying and weak storage activity suppress short-term demand.
- Future market movement hinges on stockist re-entry and fresh arrivals.
- Continued stability amid absence of supply shocks or aggressive buying.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- India (Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat): Recent weather has remained favorable for stock holding and dry conditions are reported, supporting preservation and quality. No adverse weather alerts in major growing regions.
- Forecast: Next 7 days indicate mostly dry, stable conditions with minor chances of local showers in Gujarat, unlikely to impact harvest or supply flow significantly.
- Impact: Continued favorable weather will help maintain garlic quality, supporting stable arrivals. Any late unexpected rainfall could delay collection but is not forecasted.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison
- India: One of the top garlic producers globally; steady arrivals in western/central regions, strong stock position.
- China: Key exporter; stable output this season, with competitive pricing keeping pressure on international prices.
- Egypt: Stable FOB prices and adequate stock levels in fresh garlic market.
- Global Stocks: Adequate, with localized tightness based on pace of arrivals and stockist actions.
💡 Key Insights & Trading Outlook
- Expect prices to remain in a narrow range in the near term amidst steady arrivals and limited demand.
- Short-term outlook is neutral; any improvement in demand from storages could lift prices modestly.
- Monitor weather developments closely in main producing belts for any late adverse events impacting arrivals.
- International traders should watch for competitive Chinese export quotes and potential shifts in European demand.
- Maintain wait-and-watch strategy until there are clear signs of recovery in storage demand or regional weather changes.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (USD/ton)
| Region | Current Price | Forecast (Next 3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| Rajkot (IN) | 1,980 – 2,220 | Stable (–1% to +1%) |
| Gondal (IN) | 2,220 – 2,250 | Stable |
| Jamnagar (IN) | 2,220 – 2,244 | Stable |
| Madhya Pradesh (IN) | 1,200 – 1,620 | Stable |
| New Delhi (IN, Powder, EUR/kg) | 6.60 | Stable |
| Kairo (EG, Fresh, EUR/kg) | 1.00 | Stable |
