The international garlic market remains in a period of relative stability, balancing increased arrivals with resilient demand. Over the past week, wholesale garlic prices have held steady, even as daily inflows surged in major producing states such as Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh in India. In Gujarat alone, around 50 truckloads arrived daily, with notable activity also seen in other key mandis. The Gondal mandi reported receipts of 2,200 bags, indicating not only a robust supply pipeline but also a dynamic market structure adapting to seasonal realities. Market sentiment is currently stable, buoyed by local traders and Stuckists who are keen to capitalize on current pricing amid ongoing consumer and export demand.
However, traders are cautious: if supplies from Madhya Pradesh increase further, the market could experience some downward price adjustments in the short-term. Internationally, garlic trading remains active with both fresh and processed products available on key markets such as Egypt and India, showing steady pricing trends. Going forward, the garlic market’s trajectory will heavily depend on arrival volumes and evolving weather patterns in top growing regions. For now, a strong demand base is keeping the market balanced, yet vigilance is warranted to detect any signs of oversupply or weather disruptions that could shift the pricing outlook.
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📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Product | Origin | Quality | Location | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garlic (Fresh) | Egypt | – | Cairo | €1.00/kg (FOB) | 0.0% | Stable |
| Garlic (Powder, Organic) | India | Organic | New Delhi | €6.63/kg (FOB) | 0.0% | Stable |
| Garlic (Premium, Gondal) | India | Premium | Gondal (Mandi) | $42.00/20kg | – | Stable |
| Garlic (Medium, Gondal) | India | Medium | Gondal (Mandi) | $36.00/20kg | – | Steady |
| Garlic (Low Grade, Gondal) | India | Low Grade | Gondal (Mandi) | $31.20/20kg | – | Soft |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Arrivals: Increased arrivals in Gujarat (~50 truckloads/day) and Madhya Pradesh add to overall supply.
- Demand: Consistent buying by local traders and stockists helps maintain price stability despite higher inflows.
- Warning Signal: If arrivals continue to rise from MP and other states, downward pressure on prices is likely.
- Export Market: Stable Indian and Egyptian FOB offers point to strong international demand and active trade.
📊 Fundamentals
- India: One of the world’s top garlic producers; current inventories remain robust, limiting upward price moves.
- China: Largest global exporter; recent stable pricing on global markets signals balanced stocks and demand, though Chinese output is closely watched each season.
- Egypt: Export-focused, leveraging seasonal windows when Indian and Chinese supply tightens.
- Speculative/Futures: Minimal speculation typical for garlic; spot market is key price driver.
⛅ Weather & Crop Outlook
- India (Gujarat, MP): Mostly normal temperatures and precipitation expected over next 7 days, supporting harvest and post-harvest processing. No acute risks for immediate crop degradation.
- Global Exporters (China, Egypt): Weather remains seasonally favorable, no reports of major disruptions.
- Risks: Prolonged unseasonal rain or extreme heat in any top producing region could affect yield quality or storability in coming weeks.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | Production (2023 est.) | Major Export Volume | Stock/Inventory Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | ~20m tons | Highest | Stable to Slightly Lower |
| India | 1.6m tons | Regional Exporter | Robust, Seasonal Peaks |
| Egypt | 350k tons | High (seasonal) | Stable |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term: Stable to slightly soft bias. Rising arrivals could weigh on prices if demand does not keep pace in upcoming weeks.
- Physical Traders: Maintain current inventory levels; monitor arrivals and weather updates in MP and Gujarat closely.
- Exporters: Indian and Egyptian FOB offers remain competitive; consider forward cover for H2 2024 contracts.
- Importers: Good time to secure contracts for premium and medium grades amid stable pricing.
- Speculators: Limited opportunities; watch for spike in arrivals as potential sell signal.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market/Region | Today | +1 Day | +2 Days | +3 Days | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gondal (India) | $39.60/20kg | $39.60/20kg | $39.40/20kg | $39.20/20kg | Slight softening on higher arrivals |
| Delhi FOB (India, Powder, Org.) | €6.63/kg | €6.63/kg | €6.63/kg | €6.60/kg | Stable to mild downside |
| Cairo FOB (Egypt, Fresh) | €1.00/kg | €1.00/kg | €1.00/kg | €1.00/kg | Stable |
