The garlic market has witnessed a notable stabilization this week, recovering from prior weaknesses as steady demand offset high arrivals across key trading hubs in India. Particularly in Saurashtra, prices have improved by $3.5 to $12.0 per quintal compared to the previous week, demonstrating resilience even as large volumes enter the marketplace. Regional centers such as Rajkot, Jamnagar, Madhya Pradesh, and Gondal reported collective arrivals in excess of 2,500 quintals, reflecting ample supply. Wholesaler interest has remained robust, buoyed by both domestic demand and a steady trickle of export inquiries. Superior quality lots have managed to command a healthy premium, underlining a market dynamic where quality differentiation is increasingly rewarded.
Despite the seasonal influx, market sentiment remains upbeat. Traders’ optimism is rooted in the belief that unless there is a sudden surge in arrivals, garlic prices will likely remain stable at current levels. This is further underpinned by sustained export interest and consistent buying patterns in domestic markets. Consequently, the short-term outlook for garlic prices is positive, supporting both growers and traders eyeing continued stability and modest price appreciation.
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📈 Prices
| Market | Arrival (Quintals) | Price Range (USD/quintal) | Premium Quality (USD/quintal) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rajkot | 1,000 | 396–420 | 420–426 |
| Jamnagar | 500 | 396–414 | – |
| Madhya Pradesh | 700 | 396–414 | – |
| Gondal | 1,200 | 396–426 | 420–426 |
| Product | Origin | Quality | Location | FOB Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Last Update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garlic Powder | India | Organic | New Delhi | 6.63 | 6.60 | 2025-08-14 |
| Fresh Garlic | Egypt | Conventional | Kairo | 1.00 | 0.99 | 2025-08-14 |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Arrivals: Saurashtra, Rajkot, Jamnagar, Madhya Pradesh, and Gondal reported high daily volumes but no glut, maintaining orderly price movements.
- Demand: Wholesalers underpin baseline demand, and steady interest from export markets is supporting price stability.
- Quality Split: Premium garlic continued to fetch significantly higher rates than medium or lower grades, indicating differentiation in end-user preferences.
- Historic Data: Compared to the last report, current prices have recovered from earlier lows, benefiting from reduced market anxiety and firmer demand.
📊 Fundamentals
- Inventory Trends: No reported build-up in local inventories, and strong turnover signals balanced fundamentals.
- Speculation: With stable arrivals and no clear signs of market oversupply, speculative activity appears muted for now.
- Global Stocks: The global market remains steady, with Indian and Egyptian supplies balancing demand in European and Asian markets. No significant disruptions reported from major exporters.
⛅️ Weather Outlook
- India (Madhya Pradesh & Saurashtra): Forecasts indicate above-average temperatures with mostly dry weather—suitable for post-harvest handling and no major disease risk. However, extended dryness could impact next season’s crop planning if not followed by normal monsoon conditions.
- Egypt: Weather remains typical for the season, supporting both quality retention and regular export schedules.
🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2022 Production (Mt) | 2023 Forecast (Mt) | Stock Change (YoY) |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 23.8 | 24.1 | +1.3% |
| India | 2.9 | 3.1 | +6.8% |
| Egypt | 0.64 | 0.68 | +6.2% |
| Bangladesh | 0.47 | 0.49 | +4.3% |
💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 📊 Expect steady to firm prices in the coming week; limited downside risk unless arrivals spike unexpectedly.
- 🚚 Exporters should continue fulfilling existing contracts, given stable international prices and supportive demand trends.
- 📦 Wholesalers can consider moderate restocking, targeting premium lots if quality differentials persist.
- 🛑 Caution is warranted for speculative buying; the market is balanced but watch for weather or logistics disruptions.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Expected Price Range (USD/quintal) | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Rajkot | 398–422 | Stable/Firm |
| Jamnagar | 396–416 | Stable |
| Madhya Pradesh | 396–415 | Stable |
| Gondal | 398–428 | Slight Firmness |
