The Indian garlic market, particularly in Rajkot, is showcasing a remarkable balance as increased arrivals have yet to spark any significant price volatility. Latest trading reports reveal that daily inflow jumped from 3,000 to 4,000 bags, yet prices—across all quality segments—remained stable. Local traders and retailers continue to display consistent buying patterns, while subdued export interest suggests domestic fundamentals are key to the market’s current direction.
This equilibrium is reflective of strong, steady demand being met adequately by ongoing supply, giving mid-term confidence to both sellers and buyers. With expectations for arrivals to stay high in the run-up to Diwali and weather remaining broadly stable over the core cultivation zones, the odds favor continued price consolidation. Unless there’s a sudden export uptick or adverse weather, major price movements before the festive season remain unlikely, allaying concerns of spikes or dips and bringing welcome stability for the trade.
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Garlic
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FOB 6.63 €/kg
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📈 Garlic Prices at a Glance
| Quality | Location | Price (USD/quintal) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best | Rajkot (India) | $47.40–$48.00 | Stable | Neutral |
| Medium | Rajkot (India) | $42.00–$44.40 | Stable | Neutral |
| Low | Rajkot (India) | $36.00–$38.40 | Stable | Neutral |
| Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Powder, Organic | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 6.60 | 0 |
| Fresh | EG | Kairo | FOB | 1.00 | 0 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Overview
- Arrivals in Rajkot: Up to 4,000 bags/day (+1,000 vs. prior day)
- Demand: Consistent from local traders & retailers; limited export interest
- Inventory/Stock: No significant surplus or shortfall reported; market balance achieved
- Market Sentiment: Steady—expected to hold until Diwali barring unforeseen events
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- No major price movements despite higher arrivals
- Export demand remains weak—trade dominated by domestic actors
- Arrivals expected to remain between 3,000–4,000 bags daily
- Speculative activity low, with little short-term volatility
☀️ Weather Watch
- India (key garlic regions): Currently experiencing seasonal norms of temperature and rainfall.
- Weather outlook for next week: Stable, with no major disruptions forecasted. This supports ongoing harvest and arrival flows.
- Adverse weather risk: Low, supporting price stability through the festive period.
🌐 Global Garlic Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024 Estimated Production (million MT) | 2024 Estimated Ending Stocks (million MT) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 23.5 | 5.1 | Largest producer, key exporter |
| India | 2.9 | 0.35 | High domestic consumption |
| Egypt | 0.7 | 0.05 | Major supplier to Europe & ME |
| Spain | 0.3 | 0.02 | Leading exporter within EU |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Maintain steady procurement—no need for aggressive buying before Diwali given expected stable arrivals and prices
- Exporters should monitor global market signals, especially from China and EU, for potential improvements in demand after the festive season
- Downside risk appears limited; upside potential contingent on weather shocks or surprise export deals
- Retailers can consider forward contracts to lock in stable prices for Q4
🔮 3-Day Regional Garlic Price Forecast
| Region | Type | Forecast (USD/quintal) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rajkot (IN) | Best quality | 47.5–48.0 | Steady |
| Rajkot (IN) | Medium quality | 42.0–44.5 | Steady |
| New Delhi (IN) | Powder, Organic | 6.60 EUR/kg | Steady |
| Kairo (EG) | Fresh | 1.00 EUR/kg | Steady |