The global garlic market stands at a turning point as the exhaustion of farmer-held stocks gives way to heightened volatility and new uncertainties. Over the past two months, garlic prices have witnessed a significant uptrend, climbing from around $720 to $860 per quintal, largely driven by a pronounced supply squeeze. This rally peaked at $930 per quintal for select premium lots, highlighting strong underlying demand. However, a recent price decline of $12 to $18 per quintal has triggered caution among both growers and traders. As most farmer stocks are now depleted, market attention rotates to arrivals from major cold storages, especially from Madhya Pradesh’s Ujjain region—a linchpin for upcoming supply.
Despite the recent pullback, the correction is widely regarded as temporary. The major uncertainty lies in the speed and scale of cold storage garlic hitting key mandis across Gujarat and other regions. If these arrivals disappoint in volume, prices could surge anew; conversely, simultaneous large-volume arrivals risk putting prices under significant pressure. This complex backdrop is compounded by limited recent arrivals—mostly average-quality garlic now entering the market—while some premium lots are being withheld as farmers anticipate improved prices. All eyes now focus on the interplay of volume, quality, and trade sentiment in coming weeks, with expectations of volatility persisting until the market clarifies the true state of stocks and new season arrivals.
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📈 Prices
| Market/Exchange | Product Type | Quality | Price (USD/quintal) | Recent Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indian Mandis | Fresh | Premium | $720–$780 | ↓ $12–$18 | Uncertain/Volatile |
| Indian Mandis | Fresh | Medium/Low | $600–$650 | Stable | Weak |
| Rajkot, IN | Fresh | Premium | $720–$800 | Stable | Mixed |
| New Delhi, IN | Powder (Organic) | – | €6.60/kg | No change | Stable |
| Cairo, EG | Fresh | – | €0.99/kg | No change | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Supply Dynamics: Stocks with farmers have nearly run out, making the market highly sensitive to fresh arrivals.
- Cold Storage Impact: Anticipated arrivals from cold storages in Madhya Pradesh, especially Ujjain, are crucial. Delays or smaller volumes may trigger price rebounds.
- Quality Trends: Only average-grade garlic is entering markets; premium lots reportedly held back for higher future prices.
- Import & Export Flows: India remains both a large producer and consumer; Egypt is notable as an affordable exporter, with €0.99/kg FOB fresh garlic in Cairo.
📊 Fundamental Market Drivers
- Price Correction: The $12–$18 per quintal dip follows weeks of tight supply, reflecting short-term arrival disruptions.
- Stock Depletion: Farmer stocks are largely exhausted, shifting the focus to cold storage reserves.
- Trader Positioning: Recent sentiment is tentative; many await clarity on actual stock volumes and quality in cold stores.
- Speculative Play: Premium garlic is being held back, suggesting bullish undertones if supply disappoints.
- Market Sentiment: Overall, the market expects volatility with a slight upward bias if arrivals underwhelm.
⛈️ Weather Outlook & Impact
- Northern/Central India: Weather in Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat is generally favorable, with normal monsoon progression expected over the next 10 days. Rain disruptions could delay some arrivals but are not anticipated to damage stored garlic.
- Yield Effects: No major threats to new crops reported; field reports indicate steady yield potential, but excess moisture could impact long-term storage quality.
- Egypt: Stable, dry conditions support uninterrupted exports.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024 Production (Est. Tons) | Stock Levels | Export Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~2.8 million | Low (farmer); Moderate (cold storage) | Major producer; moderate exporter |
| China | ~22 million | High | World’s largest exporter |
| Egypt | ~500,000 | Stable | Key supplier to EU, ME, South Asia |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Monitor arrival pace from Madhya Pradesh cold storages—the key short-term driver.
- If arrivals are below expectations, expect a sharp price rebound over next 2–3 weeks.
- Bulk buyers: Secure coverage on price dips, especially for premium or high-quality garlic.
- Traders: Consider holding premium stocks for likely price appreciation, but beware of sudden supply surges.
- Importers: Indian and Egyptian supply remains competitive, but watch for local volatility to time purchases.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Product | Today | Next 3 Days | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indian Mandis (Premium) | Fresh | $750 | $750-$780 | Slightly Up |
| Rajkot | Fresh | $770 | $780 | Stable/Up |
| New Delhi | Powder (Organic) | €6.60 | €6.60 | Stable |
| Cairo | Fresh | €0.99 | €0.99 | Stable |