Garlic Market Outlook: Rising Arrivals, Weak Prices, and Looming Supply Pressure

The garlic market has entered a highly volatile phase, with prices falling sharply due to a surge in arrivals following recent rainfall in Madhya Pradesh. While garlic acreage expanded this season, actual production has not met expectations. Nonetheless, total available stocks remain high as many farmers continue to hold back supplies, disappointed by current price levels. Prices have declined by USD 0.18 to USD 0.24 per kg over the past week. In Madhya Pradesh, lower-grade garlic is trading between USD 0.24 and USD 0.30 per kg, premium lots are priced at USD 0.96 to USD 1.08 per kg, and select high-quality produce is fetching up to USD 1.44 per kg. Stockists, still cautious after incurring losses last year, have limited their buying activity, further weakening market sentiment. In Rajasthan, only about 10 percent of the season’s crop has been released into the market so far, with most of the stock still held by farmers in anticipation of improved prices. Globally, the outlook is also bearish. China’s new garlic crop is expected to enter the international market soon, which could add further pressure on prices. Earlier expectations of strong export demand due to geopolitical developments have not materialized. With monsoon sowing nearing completion, farmers may face increased pressure to liquidate their stocks in the coming weeks, especially if weather conditions turn adverse. Without any major bullish triggers on the horizon, garlic prices are likely to remain under pressure in the near term.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Location	Delivery	Latest Price	Prev. Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
India (Madhya Pradesh)	Fresh	Local Markets	Spot	20–90 INR/kg	35–110 INR/kg (prev. week)	-15 to -20 INR/kg	INR	Bearish
India (New Delhi)	Powder	FOB	6.6 USD/kg	6.6 USD/kg	0	USD	Stable
Egypt (Kairo)	Fresh	FOB	0.94 USD/kg	0.94 USD/kg	0	USD	Stable
Himachal/Kashmir (IN)	Premium Fresh	Local Markets	Spot	130–140 INR/kg	120–125 INR/kg	+10 to +15 INR/kg	INR	Firm (small volume)

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Arrivals: Increased arrivals in Madhya Pradesh, daily volumes now at 75,000–100,000 katta.
• Production: Acreage up but production below expectations; overall crop quality is good.
• Stocks: Large stocks still held by farmers, especially in Rajasthan (90% unsold).
• Demand: Domestic demand weak; no significant export demand as China’s crop enters global market.
• Stockists: Low participation due to heavy losses last year; may re-enter if prices fall further.

📊 Fundamentals

• Market Drivers:
  • Increased arrivals post-rainfall in Madhya Pradesh.
  • Farmers withholding sales due to low prices.
  • Limited stockist activity dampening market support.
  • Impending Chinese crop to add global supply pressure.
• Speculative Positioning: Minimal, as risk appetite remains low after last year’s losses.
• Government/Policy: No current interventions or support programs reported.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Madhya Pradesh: Recent rains have improved soil moisture, aiding late garlic arrivals. Weather forecast for next week indicates moderate rainfall, supporting late harvest but potentially delaying soybean sowing, which could pressure farmers to sell stocks in July–August.
• Rajasthan: Dry conditions persist, but monsoon is expected to advance, improving prospects for late crops.
• China: Favorable weather reported for new crop; large supplies expected to hit the market from July onwards.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024 Production Estimate (kt)	2024 Stocks (kt)	Export Share
China	~22,000	High (new crop from July)	Largest exporter
India	2,800–3,000	High (esp. Rajasthan, MP)	Domestic focus
Egypt	800	Moderate	Key exporter to EU/MENA
Argentina	500	Moderate	Seasonal exporter

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📉 Short-term: Bearish; expect further price declines as arrivals increase and farmers liquidate stocks post-monsoon sowing.
• 🛑 For Farmers: Consider holding stocks if possible until August–September, but be prepared for further downside if Chinese crop exerts pressure.
• 💼 For Traders/Stockists: Watch for entry opportunities if prices fall by another 10–20 INR/kg; risk remains high until export demand revives.
• 🌍 For Exporters: Limited prospects due to ample Chinese supply and weak international demand.
• 📊 For Processors: Stable prices for garlic powder; consider forward contracts to lock in margins.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Current Price	Forecast Range	Currency	Trend
Madhya Pradesh (IN)	20–90 INR/kg	18–85 INR/kg	INR	⬇️
New Delhi (IN, Powder FOB)	6.6 USD/kg	6.5–6.6 USD/kg	USD	➡️
Egypt (Kairo, FOB)	0.94 USD/kg	0.93–0.94 USD/kg	USD	➡️
Himachal/Kashmir (IN, Premium)	130–140 INR/kg	128–138 INR/kg	INR	⬇️