The global garlic market continues to display remarkable resilience and stability, as ongoing arrivals keep price levels consistent across key trading hubs. In recent days, traders have reported balanced market activity, with both supply and demand in equilibrium and negligible price fluctuations. Market sentiment points to a calm environment, attributed to robust arrivals in major producing regions like Madhya Pradesh, Rajkot, and Jamnagar. However, a collective mood among traders anticipates a subtle upward price movement following Janmastami—a period historically known for reduced arrivals due to the festive lull. This anticipated tightening of supply is expected to provide modest support to prices, presenting an early warning to both buyers and sellers considering inventory decisions.
Regionally, Rajkot reported about 500 quintals of arrivals, with medium-quality garlic trading within a reasonable band. Jamnagar saw greater volumes at competitive prices, while Madhya Pradesh continues to be the market heavyweight with significant daily arrivals. The relative stability and well-matched market participation presently shield prices from sharp corrections. Yet, the upcoming festival-driven dip in supply could prove pivotal, nudging prices upward into the short-term and challenging the patience of market participants hoping for continued flatness.
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📈 Prices: Key Garlic Market Quotes
| Location | Type | Quality | Latest Price (USD/20kg) | Previous Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajkot, IN | Fresh | Medium | $4.50–$4.90 | $4.50–$4.90 | ⬄ Steady | Stable |
| Jamnagar, IN | Fresh | Mixed | $4.40–$5.30 | $4.40–$5.30 | ⬄ Steady | Stable |
| Madhya Pradesh, IN | Fresh | Mixed | $3.60–$4.35 | $3.60–$4.35 | ⬄ Steady | Stable |
| New Delhi, IN (powder, organic) | Powder | Organic | €6.60 (FOB) |
€6.60 | ⬄ Steady | Neutral |
| Cairo, EG | Fresh | Conventional | €0.99 (FOB) |
€0.99 | ⬄ Steady | Neutral |
🌍 Supply & Demand: Arrivals and Market Balance
- Arrivals: Rajkot ~500 quintals, Jamnagar ~1,000 quintals, Madhya Pradesh ~25,000 quintals.
- Steady Supply: Consistent arrivals across growing centers, no supply shock observed.
- Demand: In line with harvest volumes; traders, processors, and exporters continue normal procurement.
- Outlook: Slight supply tapering expected after Janmastami could trigger a modest uptick in prices.
📊 Fundamentals: Key Market Drivers
- USDA & Indian Agri Reports: No major global shocks, but local adjustments expected post-holiday.
- Crop Acreage: Sown area steady year-on-year, with no adverse reports in major Indian regions.
- Inventories: Well-supplied at cold storages; pipeline stocks sufficient for 2–3 weeks of average demand.
- Speculative Positioning: Low speculative activity due to flat market; real demand driving trade.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact
- India: Monsoon conditions remain favorable in Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. No immediate risk of excessive rainfall or drought in major garlic-producing states.
- Egypt: Weather remains seasonally stable. No weather disruptions reported for current export supply.
- Impact: Continued favorable weather supports stable and healthy crop condition, lowering risk of supply shocks near-term.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | Production (MT) | Stock Levels | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | ~21 million | High | Largest producer/exporter |
| India | ~3 million | Stable | Major producer/internal consumer |
| Egypt | ~0.6 million | Moderate | Export-focused |
| Europe | ~0.45 million | Varies | Net importer |
📆 Trading Outlook & Strategy Recommendations
- 📦 Buyers: Secure short-term requirements now as prices remain stable; avoid aggressive long positions until post-Janmastami developments confirm trend.
- 🚢 Exporters: Continue normal shipment pace; monitor Indian arrivals closely during holiday week.
- 🛒 Traders: Watch post-festival supply for early signals of upward price movement; limit risk exposure until confirmation of a bullish shift.
- 📊 Processors & Wholesalers: Consider building inventory ahead of expected tightening; reassess after Janmastami’s supply response.
- ⚠️ All Participants: Check for weather and logistics updates, especially for Indian and Egyptian supplies in the coming 10 days.
⏩ 3-Day Price Forecast (Spot FOB)
| Exchange/Market | Product | Forecast Price Range | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rajkot | Fresh Garlic | $4.50–$4.90/20kg | Stable |
| Jamnagar | Fresh Garlic | $4.40–$5.30/20kg | Stable |
| Madhya Pradesh | Fresh Garlic | $3.60–$4.35/20kg | Stable |
| New Delhi (Export) | Organic powder | €6.60/20kg | Stable |
| Cairo | Fresh Garlic (Export) | €0.99/20kg | Stable |
