The global garlic market has entered a notable phase of stability as steady arrivals continue to underpin prices across key trading centers. Over the past week, markets in India’s major garlic-producing regions and select international exporters have demonstrated minimal price fluctuations, a development welcomed by both traders and end-users. In India, particularly in hubs like Rajkot, Gondal, and the state of Madhya Pradesh, consistent daily arrivals have kept supply lines robust, muffling any chance of abrupt price surges. Despite only moderate demand, these steady inflows have absorbed market pressures, resulting in balanced pricing across all quality segments.
At the same time, the European market observes similar patterns, with prices holding firm amid sufficient stock levels, bolstered by recent harvests and stable import volumes from Egypt and India. Analysts caution that the market’s current tranquility is susceptible to potential shifts in demand or disruptions in incoming stock, yet emphasize that, unless these occur, prices should remain largely unchanged in the near term. As always, weather conditions in the main producing regions and any policy adjustments remain key variables on the horizon for both growers and traders.
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📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Market/Origin | Type | Price (per 20 kg or per kg) | Currency | Change (Weekly) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajkot (IN) | Fresh – Avg Quality | 4.50–5.30 / 20 kg | USD | Unchanged | Stable |
| Rajkot (IN) | Fresh – Premium | 5.60–6.00 / 20 kg | USD | Unchanged | Stable |
| Gondal (IN) | Fresh | 5.10–5.40 / 20 kg | USD | Unchanged | Stable |
| Madhya Pradesh (IN) | Fresh | 4.40–6.20 / 20 kg | USD | Unchanged | Stable |
| Kairo (EG) | Fresh (FOB) | 1.00 / kg | EUR | Unchanged | Stable |
| New Delhi (IN) | Powdered Organic (FOB) | 6.63 / kg | EUR | Unchanged | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Supply Stability: Daily arrivals across India’s Rajkot, Gondal, and Madhya Pradesh total over 4,700 quintals, supporting stable market conditions.
- Demand: Remains moderate across end-user segments; no signs of sudden restocking activity.
- Export Pace: Indian exportable supplies remain competitive alongside Egypt’s strong fresh garlic FOB prices.
- Risk Factors: Watch out for abrupt demand spikes (festivals, procurement) or supply chain disruptions.
📊 Market Fundamentals & Stocks
- Inventories: Most market yards report healthy stock levels, supported by timely harvests and consistent arrivals.
- Global Comparison: Egyptian fresh garlic remains among the most price-competitive origins in global markets.
- Speculator Positioning: Minimal speculative activity due to subdued volatility and steady price action.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- India (Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat): Monsoon progress in producing regions is favourable, supporting crop development and continued supply. No immediate weather threats reported, which should underpin continued arrivals and stable prices.
- Egypt: Weather in major export zones remains favorable for harvest and dispatch.
Potential Effects: Should monsoon progress be disrupted or excessive rainfall hit late, quality downgrades or slowed arrivals may result. Currently, forecasts are benign, supporting the prevailing calm in market pricing.
🌐 Global Production/Stock Comparison
| Country | Production Estimate (2024/25) | Stock/Supply Situation |
|---|---|---|
| China | >20 million MT | Stable, large exporter; to global markets |
| India | ~3 million MT | Steady arrivals; ample stocks, minor export player |
| Egypt | <1 million MT | Key fresh export player; steady inventory |
| Spain | <500,000 MT | Seasonal exports; limited share |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Current fundamentals point to a stable market in the short term; hold positions if already long.
- Increased arrivals from producing states could apply slight downward pressure—monitor arrivals closely.
- With moderate demand and well-supplied stocks, price volatility should remain subdued unless outside shocks occur.
- Procurement should be phased and based on quality premiums, particularly for premium grades.
- Export opportunities remain favorable for fresh Egyptian and powdered Indian garlic given competitive pricing.
- Keep an eye on weather updates in India, as late monsoon disruptions could alter arrivals and pricing swiftly.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Markets)
| Market/Origin | 3-Day Price Range | Currency | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rajkot (IN) | $4.50–$6.00 / 20 kg | USD | Stable |
| Gondal (IN) | $5.10–$5.40 / 20 kg | USD | Stable |
| Madhya Pradesh (IN) | $4.40–$6.20 / 20 kg | USD | Stable |
| Kairo (EG, FOB) | €1.00 / kg | EUR | Stable |
| New Delhi (IN, Powdered, FOB) | €6.63 / kg | EUR | Stable |
